023
FXUS62 KILM 030600
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
200 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm weather will continue through Friday. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop this weekend as a front
approaches from the west. High pressure will build overhead by
Tuesday, and our first heat wave of 2024 may develop late next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
High pressure is situated just off the Carolina coast. Light
southeast winds are being enhanced by today`s seabreeze and may
reach 10-15 mph at the beaches for a few hours late this afternoon.
Cumulus developing along and ahead of the seabreeze front have
remained generally shallow due to copious dry air aloft, however at
least a few convective showers have been able to develop near the
Santee River with radar-measured echo tops near 19kft. Once the
seabreeze dies away, very light to calm winds are expected
overnight.

The biggest forecast concern tonight is the redevelopment of dense
fog. The airmass is unseasonably humid and models show a shallow
saturated surface layer developing very similarly to what we
observed this morning. Fog should first develop along the coast
south of Cape Fear, potentially before midnight. Low visibility will
expand northward and inland after midnight, but may have some
trouble making it west of Florence where the airmass will remain
slightly drier. Certainty is almost high enough to raise a Dense Fog
Advisory now for Horry and Georgetown counties, but I`ll defer that
decision to the next shift. Forecast lows tonight range from 60-65.

The fog depth should be shallow and it will burn off quickly on
Friday. Expect another expansive cumulus cloud field during the
afternoon and there`s s slightly better potential for an isolated
shower inland. Coverage should remain less than 10 percent which
will not be mentioned in the forecast. Friday`s forecast highs range
from the upper 70s on the beaches to the upper 80s along and west of
I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Ridge moves offshore as a shortwave and front approach Fri
night into Sat. Moisture will pool across the Carolinas in
deeper southerly flow with pcp water values reaching up over 1.5
inches by Sat morning along and west of I-95 corridor. Any pcp
should hold out until after daybreak on Sat, but model soundings
do show mid to high clouds increasing through Fri night.
Soundings show mid to upper level moisture working its way down
through the column into Sat aftn as instability increases with
enhanced lift due to shortwave approaching from the west. With a
southerly flow backing to the southeast on Sat, the sea breeze
should see a good push inland and will remain the focal point
for convection with less coverage as you move east in more
stable air behind sea breeze. Coast may remain fairly dry Sat
with only isolated convection and some mid to high clouds or cu
present. By Sat night, showers will shift eastward with eastward
moving shortwave. the coast may see there best chc of rain
overnight into Sun. Some lingering shortwave energy should
remain into Sun aftn with clouds and chc of convection again Sun
aftn. Pcp water values increase up to 1.7 inches across the
area through Sun aftn.

Increased cloud cover and moisture will keep afternoon highs in
the low 80s most places and 60s for overnight lows. An
approaching shortwave will maintain shower chances overnight as
elevated instability remains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Shortwave will exit the coast Sun night with ridge building back
up through the Southeast coast on Monday. A moist southerly
flow will remain, but expect more localized sea breeze
convection Mon aftn with lack of upper level support. Another
shortwave will approach late Mon with convection flaring west of
I-95 by Mon eve and tracking eastward through the night and
offshore by morning as ridge builds back up through the
Southeasts Tues into midweek. A S-SW flow will persist around
high pressure over the Atlantic with mainly just isolated
convection possible on Tues with subsidence increasing aloft.
Temps will be on the rise with H5 heights rising and plenty of
sunshine. Temps Mon will hold in the mid 80s with convection and
clouds, but by Wed, expect to top 90. The westerly component to
the flow will add to downslope flow into midweek and will keep
sea breeze pinned closer to the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Still expecting IFR fog/ceilings to develop along the coast,
although it may take a bit longer than last night. Boundary
layer winds are slightly stronger compared to 24 hours ago, but
do think coastal terminals will start seeing IFR develop around
09Z. IFR conditions will gradually spread inland, but may fail
to reach LBT before sunrise. IFR that does develop will quickly
dissipate with most areas VFR by 13Z. VFR persists through the
day with light southerly winds seeing a bit of enhancement near
shore from the afternoon sea breeze.

Extended Outlook...Early morning ground fog and low ceilings
are possible Sunday. Scattered mainly diurnal convection will
bring brief visibility restrictions in heavy rain Saturday
through Monday, especially inland affecting KFLO and KLBT.
Lightning is also possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday...High pressure will remain just off the coast
for the next 24 hours. Synoptic winds of only 5 knots will be
enhanced by daytime seabreeze winds resulting in nearshore
speeds increasing to near 10 knots. This enhancement is ongoing
now, and should develop again on Friday. Seas are currently 1-2
feet and should change little through Friday.

Friday night through Tuesday...
Southerly winds will persist around high pressure over the
Atlantic through the weekend into next week. The winds will
initially be more S-SE, especially as they back near shore in
Sat aftn sea breeze, but by early next week a SW flow will
develop and increase up to 10 to 15 kts. Seas mainly less than
2 ft through Sat will increase up to 3 to 4 ft in increasing
southerly flow into next week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...III
MARINE...TRA/RGZ