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000
FXUS62 KILM 151716
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
115 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda High will lead to unseasonably warm and quiet weather
midweek. A series of weak disturbances bring only a slight
chance of showers towards later in the week. Rain chances may
start to increase later in the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE/...
No changes to the forecast at this time. The very lengthy aviation
discussion updated below.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Another warm, dry day in store for start of the work week with a mid
level ridge over the Southeast today and tonight. Surface high
pressure offshore is extending southwest into Florida through
tonight maintaining west-southwest flow. Well above normal temps
today thanks to WAA and ridge aloft, with highs nearing 90F away
from the immediate coast. Decent mixing will bring down dewpoints in
the upper 40s this afternoon, so it won`t be a humid heat. Backdoor
cold front drops into NC tonight, though stays north of the forecast
area keeping us in the warm sector with low temps around 60F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Bermuda High will be the dominant feature Tue and Wed, keeping the
region warm and dry. A weak cold front moves into the area Wed
night, which may bring some isolated showers to the area during the
overnight hours. Mid-level lapse rates do increase ahead of the
front, but low level dry air will remain a significant hurdle.
Forecast soundings have RH under 50% for much of the night below 10k
ft. Any showers that do develop will have limited rainfall with at
most a couple hundredths falling in a few isolated locations.
Temperatures will run 5-10 degrees above climo with some areas
seeing lows closer to 15 degrees above.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak, flat flow aloft will persist into the start of next week. On
Thu a weak front moves into the area then shifts off the coast Fri.
The front then lingers in the area Sat, gradually decaying. This
boundary could lead to some isolated showers, but no rainfall of
significance. An approaching weak southern stream shortwave may
bring increased rain chances to the area for the weekend, although
confidence with respect to this feature is low. Medium range
guidance shows the wave interacting with another weak front moving
into the area Sun. Temperatures will run 5-10 degrees above climo,
both during the day and at night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR with clear skies and no fog tonight. Wind speed decreases around
sunset as mixing grows shallow.

Extended Outlook...VFR is expected through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight:
With high pressure offshore, south-southwest winds will
continue to dominate the coastal waters through tonight. Winds
generally 10-15 kts, with brief increase to 15-20 kts this
afternoon. Seas linger in the 3-4 ft range, combination of SSW
wind chop and 2 ft ESE swell.

Tuesday through Friday:
Bermuda High maintains southwest flow across the waters Tue and
Wed with speeds generally 10-15 kt. Occasionally afternoon
speeds will exceed 15 kt. Cold front moves across the waters
late Thu with offshore flow setting up and lasting through Fri.
Gradient behind the front is not particularly strong and
northerly flow will remain under 15 kt. Seas 2-4 ft Tue and Wed
build to 3-4 ft Thu before dropping back to 2-3 ft on Fri. Seas
will be a combination of southerly swell and southerly wind
wave, with the southerly swell persisting through Fri. A
northerly wind wave will develop Thu night, but the southerly
swell will likely remain dominant.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MBB