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000
FXUS62 KILM 162338
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
738 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS WEEK AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MID TO
LATE IN THE WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AFTER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR CU FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT THE FAR WESTERN FRINGES OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRY NEAR TERM
FORECAST.

BERMUDA HIGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE
CHANGE...BRINGING A STEADY SWLY FLOW TO THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. RESULTING MODEST WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME WILL BRING
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BACK UP AROUND CLIMO...WITH UPPER 60S MOST
LOCATIONS AND LOWER 70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE POTENTIALLY WET WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.  COMBINING THAT WITH
LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND THE SEA BREEZE MONDAY AND AN APPROACHING
FRONT TUESDAY ALONG WITH SUPPORTIVE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SHOULD
YIELD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.  THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TUESDAY.  MAX TEMPERATURES EACH DAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S
TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70 EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WEAKLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL KEEP
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS MORE OR LESS PARALLEL TO
STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY. LATEST GFS HAS GONE BACK TO PUSHING THE
FRONT THROUGH QUICKER...BUT NOT ON BOARD. THIS COULD BE DOWN TO
FEEDBACK CAUSING OVER AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AS THE
GFS SHOWS POTENT SHORTWAVE EMERGING FROM THE MOUNTAIN WEST EARLY IN
THE PERIOD THAT THE 00Z ECMWF LACKS. LATE IN THE WEEK RIDGING OVER
CENTRAL US SLOWLY BUILDS WEST...HELPING PUSH THE BOUNDARY AND ITS
MOISTURE OFF THE COAST. THE GFS DEVELOPS CONVECTION OVER THE REGION
NEXT WEEKEND BUT A LOT OF THIS APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN BY FEEDBACK FROM
SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. AT THIS POINT WILL FAVOR
DRYER FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO WITH LOWS
ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TERMS THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL CU IS
DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CLOUD COVER AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
INHIBIT ANY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. KFLO/KLBT COULD SEE
MID-LEVEL VFR CIGS BY DAYBREAK AS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE NEAR OUR WESTERN CWA. PWAT VALUES > 2.0 INCHES AFTER 15Z
INLAND/18Z COASTAL INDICATE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR
PCPN. SHOWERS/T-STORMS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE AFTN HOURS AS THE
SFC DESTABILIZES AND THE SEA BREEZE/MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES DEVELOP.
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS IN THE HEAVIEST
DOWNPOURS. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST THRU THE PERIOD...
INCREASING TO 10-12 KTS IN THE AFTN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND T-STORMS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR/TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE. VFR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE WATERS
WILL KEEP UP A STEADY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3
FT RANGE.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...EXPECT S TO SW FLOW INVOF 15 KT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH 20 KT IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.  SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT MONDAY MORNING COULD BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT
TUESDAY...WITH SOME 5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE AT 20 NM...ESPECIALLY NEAR
FRYING PAN SHOALS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD BECOMES
VARIABLE WED NIGHT BEFORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TAKES HOLD THU AND
FRI. GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK WITH FRONT STALLED CLOSE TO THE WATERS.
SPEEDS SHOULD STAY UNDER 10 KT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SEAS 3 TO 5
FT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL DROP TO 3 FT THU AND 2 TO 3 FT
FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...XXXI
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...XXXI
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR