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000
FXUS62 KILM 150220
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1020 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD. WARM AND MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR INTO SAT MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS A DRY AIRMASS HAS
ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO
LEVELS LAST EXPERIENCED DURING THE WANING DAYS OF MAY WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS. IN FACT...THE TEMP CURVE HAS REQUIRED ADJUSTING
THROUGHOUT THE EVE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RAPID DROP OFF IN TEMPS. MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD DROP TO THE LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW SOME OF OUR MOST RURAL AREAS TO
DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S. THE BEACHES SHOULD BE WARMEST OVERNIGHT...
MID 60S. THESE TEMPS WILL NOT BE LOW ENOUGH TO SET ANY OFFICIAL
RECORDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL AREA WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID 60S SATURDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AS
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM WEATHER AFFECTS THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL VARY FROM VERY BROAD TROUGHING TO PROGRESSIVE/FLAT
FLOW. AS A RESULT THE PERIOD WILL BE ACTIVE CONVECTION WISE BUT WITH
LIMITED STRENGTH. FIRST AND STRONGEST FEATURE OF THE PERIOD MOVES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST TUE. SURFACE LOW IS ENHANCED BY
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE EASTERN CONUS. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS TUE EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY THE PERIODS
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING MOISTURE MON
AFTERNOON LEADS TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF I-95. PRESENTLY ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE STORMS.

INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ENHANCE CONVECTION. MID LEVEL FORCING IS WEAK
WITH ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A SIGNIFICANT EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONGER SUMMER TIME TYPE STORMS
AT THIS POINT.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH HANDLE OF COLD FRONT WED-FRI.
ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT NEAR THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. GFS IS DRIER WED/THU AS
IT PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTHEAST AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
FRI BOTH GFS.ECMWF PORTRAY A WETTER SOLUTION...THOUGH ARRIVE AT THIS
SOLUTION IN DIFFERENT WAYS. GFS LIFTS THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT BACK
INTO THE AREA WHILE ECMWF MAINTAINS IT IN THE REGION THROUGH FRI. AT
THIS POINT A BLEND OF THE 2 SOLUTIONS COMPARES FAVORABLY TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST SO NOT PLANNING MANY CHANGES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN.

NEARLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10
KTS...BECOMING LIGHT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE
IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT GIVEN DRY LOW LEVELS. FOR SATURDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST
WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL BECOME GENERALLY SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON
AOB 10 KTS...AND MAY SEE FEW/SCT DIURNAL CU.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. POTENTIAL FOR FOG
SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...A WEAK NORTHEAST SURGE SHOULD CUTOFF OVERNIGHT.
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 10 TO 15 KT...WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. A DISTINCT
DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND SPEEDS IS STILL EXPECTED TOWARD MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. THE DIRECTION WILL
VEER SLIGHTLY...FROM NE TO ENE. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...BENIGN SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD AND THEN FURTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND SLIGHTLY MORE VARIABLE ON
SAT WITH SEA BREEZE DOMINATING NEAR SHORE WATERS ESPECIALLY SAT
AFTN. BY LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS FOR THE MOST PART. SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN
3 FT SAT INTO SUN WITH A SLIGHT RISE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE A BIT HEADING INTO MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH STARTS TO
INCREASE MON AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 20 KT
BEFORE THE FRONT REACHES THE AREA EARLY WED BUT ON TUE WINDS WILL
EXCEED 15 KT AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST. FRONT ENDS UP STALLED IN THE
AREA WED/WED NIGHT. WEAK GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS LIGHT BUT
DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH RESPECT
TO THE WATERS. GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM SOUTH OF THE WATERS TO
NORTH OF THE WATERS...FOR NOW SLIGHTLY FAVOR NORTHERN SOLUTION. SEAS
2 TO 3 FT MON BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT TUE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW. ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WEAKENS THE GRADIENT AND ALLOWS
SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 4 FT FOR WED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...XXXI
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL