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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 110752
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
352 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Widespread showers with a few isolated strong to possibly severe
thunderstorms will occur across the bi-state region today.
A strong cold frontal passage this evening will end the rainfall
threat followed by partial clearing. Breezy conditions expected
thru Fri with near normal temps. High pressure to migrate across
the area this weekend, sliding offshore from he SE States Coast
by early next week. This will allow a major warm up to near
summer-like temps across the region during the early to mid-
week period of next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Convection over southeastern GA and the FL panhandle continues to
move east and northeastward this morning. Light rain overspreading
northeastern SC and southeastern NC will hinder destabilization for
most of the day. Minimal breaks in shower activity and thick cloud
cover will generally counteract limited warm air advection. The bulk
of strong storms will likely favor the warmer and more humid Gulf
Stream.

Advecting shortwave and decreasing heights will help to improve mid
level lapse rates with model guidance supporting up to around 300
J/kg of CAPE through the early afternoon. A strong low level jet
moving overhead during this time could create a few strong wind
gusts in showers and storms. Widespread severe weather is not
anticipated although an isolated damaging wind gust and a tornado
are possible in these "strong showers" or storms.

Heavy rain could produce some issues along the coast where PW,
elevated instability, and low level convergence will be maximized.
Expect around an inch to two inches in these areas through this
afternoon. Locally higher amounts are possible in convection.

Dry air builds in behind the cold front and the bulk of the precip
later this afternoon. Cooler air aloft will produce better lapse
rates. Entrainment will keep developing showers and thunderstorm
potential minimized, but a briefly strong wind gust could result as
the dry air mixes in.

Breezy today outside of convection with gusts up to 40 mph. Winds
peak between mid morning and early afternoon with higher winds more
likely along the coast. Continually breezy tonight as the boundary
layer fails to decouple.

Much drier tonight and slightly cooler as cold air advection works
its way from west to east. Lows in the mid 50s in northeastern SC
and upper 50s to around 60 in southeastern NC.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Friday will feature the 5H southern stream s/w phasing in with
the closing 5H low having dropped out of Canada over the Great
Lakes. The sfc low will have been captured by the 5H low by Fri
aftn. The FA will be within cyclonic flow sfc thru aloft with
daytime cu/scu likely during Fri given enough avbl moisture. It
will be a breezy day with active westerly winds. The mid-level
trof axis swing across the Carolinas Fri aftn and off the coasts
Fri evening. Could see a round of scu/altocu across the FA, more
coverage further north across the FA one goes. Decent subsidence
after the upper trof pushes off the coast with continued breezy
conditions under NW winds. Looking at also decent CAA Fri night
but with somewhat uniform lows expected across the FA due to
an active boundary layer. Sat into Sat night will see a slow
diminishing wind trend but still remaining just active enough
Sat night to prevent an all out rad cooling night. Sfc high
pressure will migrate from the NE Gulf of Mexico to off the SE
States coast during Sat night. Overall, Fri night lows will run
below normal and Sat night near normal. Fri highs will run
slightly hier than Sat given the late arrival of the decent CAA
given progged various thickness schemes. Fire wx concerns a
possibility on Sat with low RH and gusty winds. Soil moisture
profiles may be non-conducive for fires Fri given the progged 1
to 2+ inch rains that are progged to fall the day b4.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Looking at a dry long term period as ridging aloft across the
south central U.S. Sun, slowly progresses toward the East Coast
by mid-week next week. The upper ridge axis is progged to be
nearly overhead by midweek. An outstanding warming trend is
shaping up this period with daily highs likely reaching the 80s
during the 1st 3 days of the work week. This is roughly 2+
categories above normal. Of course, the sea breeze influence
will keep shore-line temps capped in the 70s. Look for nighttime
lows to also creep upwards each night, to 1 to 2 categories
above the norm by midweek.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Widespread MVFR ceilings expected to develop over the next 6
hours. Moist airmass will maintain predominantly low clouds and
light to moderate rainfall through Thursday afternoon. There
will likely be brief improvements to VFR during the period, but
impossible to pinpoint any intermittent improvements at this
time. IFR ceilings will be possible, especially inland, during
the day Thursday. Low visibilities expected within moderate to
heavy rain showers, with slight chance of thunder during
afternoon and evening hours. VFR to build in from west to east
at the end of the period.

Southerly winds will dominate the area through TAF period, with
increasing wind speeds and gusts overnight into Thursday. Wind
gusts 30-35 kts forecasted beginning 15z. Have included LLWS at
coastal terminals for the last 4-6 hours of TAF period (Thursday
afternoon/evening) as south winds at 2000 ft increase to 50-60
kt.

Extended Outlook...Conditions will be improving Thursday night,
with VFR forecasted for daytime Friday through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
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Through Tonight... SE flow increases this morning ahead of a
cold front and associated line of showers and storms.
Conditions will rapidly deteriorate to SCA thresholds over the
next few hours. Gusts up 35 knots are expected today. Gale-force
gusts outside of convection are possible, but should remain
brief, mainly this afternoon. A line of showers and
thunderstorms could produce gusts in excess of 35 knots late
this morning and into the afternoon. Seas peak during the late
afternoon at 8-11 feet.

Breezy conditions continue behind the cold front tonight with
ongoing SCA conditions likely through Friday morning. Seas up
to 12 feet early gradually decrease overnight to 6-9 feet by
Friday morning.

Friday through Monday...
SCA conditions will be ongoing across all waters at the start of
this period. At this point, we have SCA thresholds being met
thru atleast daybreak Sat. That could extend beyond given the
overall slow diminishing windspeed trend. Once winds become
more NW, a true offshore direction Fri night into Sat, seas will
finally see a substantial subsiding trend. The sfc pg will see
a relaxing trend Sat into Sat night, with windspeeds
diminishing below SCA thresholds. CAA will combine with the
initial NW wind change to likely keep windspeeds at SCA levels
for possibly the 1st half of Sat.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for NCZ106-108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT early this morning for
     NCZ107.
     High Surf Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT
     Friday for NCZ110.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for SCZ054-056.
     High Surf Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT
     Friday for SCZ054.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT
     Saturday for AMZ250-252-254-256.

$$

SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...21
MARINE...DCH/21