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000
FXUS62 KILM 181402
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1000 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures will continue through Friday. Rain
chances increase on Friday as a cold front moves across the
area. The front stalls in the area for the weekend, maintaining
elevated rain chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
No major updates to the forecast at this time. Updated 12Z
aviation discussion below.

&&

.UPDATE?...
No changes to the forecast this morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Quiet and dry pattern as a ridge moves overhead then offshore late
tonight. High pressure will center to our south while low pressure
will move off the coast to our NE. Expecting plenty of sun with
highs in the upper 80s to near 90 away from the coast. The sea
breeze should limit warming at the coast with highs in the low to
mid 80s. Lowered dewpoints considerably during the afternoon due to
mixing of the drier air aloft. Lighter winds tonight with the cold
front from the offshore low pushing through from the north. Not
expecting any precip with this feature due to the dry air in place,
but cloud cover should increase late tonight. Went a tad lower with
lows due to the calmer winds and clear skies, lows largely in the
lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front stalled south of the area Fri morning will gradually
decay through Sat night, lingering in the area as it weakens. A
stronger cold front moves in from the west Fri night into Sat with
the combination of low level convergence and diurnal instability
leading to isolated convection Fri afternoon and evening. Although
the boundaries will linger in the region Sat and Sat night, coverage
of diurnal convection ends up near climatology, 30-40%. Mid-level
support is lacking and there is even a hint of weak mid-level
subsidence with an inversion between 850-700mb and a layer of very
dry air between 700-500mb. Temperatures will run around 10 degrees
above climo Fri and Fri night and about 5 degrees above climo Sat
and Sat night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A southern stream shortwave and a stalled front will lead to a
period of unsettled weather across the Southeast Sun and Mon. Weak
surface wave developing along the front stalled just off the coast
Sun morning will gradually develop into a weak coastal low as it
lifts north-northeast along the boundary late Sun into Mon. On Mon a
secondary shortwave dropping in from the northwest phases with the
initial wave, this may end up producing a second round of scattered
showers and thunderstorms later Mon into Mon night as the cold pool
aloft and associated moisture move overhead. Low confidence in rain
chances on Mon given location/timing uncertainties, but something to
keep an eye on. Shortwave exits Mon night with flat flow at 5h
setting up in its wake. Progressive flow moves surface high overhead
Tue and offshore Wed with cold front approaching from the northwest.
Highs below climo Sun-Tue return near to slightly above climo Wed
with the development of return flow. Lows will be near to above
climo through the long term. Worth noting the diurnal temp range Mon
and Mon night could very well be under 10 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR expected through the 12Z TAF period. SW winds become more
W-NW by the afternoon with a sea breeze at coastal terminals
around 19-20Z, closer to 22Z at KILM. Winds calm after sunset,
becoming SW once more. A cold front approaches late tonight with
light winds gaining a N/NE component. This front could bring
some lower CIGs to terminals, but confidence low at this time.

Extended Outlook... VFR is expected through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight:
Sub-SCA conditions. SW winds increase to 10-15 kts during the
afternoon with a turn to out of the NE at the end of the period
as a cold front moves through. Seas 2-3 ft with a SW wind wave
and 9 second SE swell. A weak E swell at 12-14 seconds will
creep in late in the period due to an offshore low to our north.

Friday through Monday:
A series of fronts affecting the waters with northerly winds
Fri morning becoming southerly as a weak front to the south
dissipates and the sea breeze dominates the wind field.
Southerly winds 10-15 kt set up for Sat as gradient pinches
ahead of another front. Second front pushes offshore Sat night,
stalling east of the waters. Northerly flow sets up behind the
front then increases Sun and Mon as low pressure first develops
along the front then slowly moves northeast. Northeast flow
approaching 20 kt will be possible at times Sun and Mon. Fri and
Sat winds under 15 kt and changeable direction will keep seas
2-3 ft. Increasing northeast flow developing by Sun builds seas
to 3-4 ft, increasing to 3-5 ft Mon. Seas will be a mix of
southerly swell and southerly wind wave Fri and Sat before a
northeast wind wave develops and becomes dominant early next
week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...LEW
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...III/LEW