478
FXUS62 KFFC 051138
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
738 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024



...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 336 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

The mid levels will remain active for the remainder of the weekend
into Monday. High pressure will continue at the surface.

500mb trough is located along the SE coast of the US. A weak
shortwave is moving through portions of northern GA currently,
helping to fire some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
This convection may linger until sunrise as it travels east across
areas mainly north of the Interstate 20 corridor. Morning convection
could end up delaying any isold/scat convection this afternoon. Any
convection that forms this afternoon will be capable of producing
gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.

Models are progging another shortwave to move through overnight
Sunday into early Monday morning. Thickness values indicate this
could be an MCS type system that moves across northern portions of
the state early Monday. Since the MCS has displayed some run to run
consistency the last couple of days, feel comfortable with going
likely pops up north as this system moves through. The timing of the
MCS may need to be adjusted on later forecasts.

Areas of dense fog have developed across eastern portions of the CWA
this morning. Have issued a Dense Fog Advisory through mid
morning.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 336 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Shortwave ridging aloft will build across the region at the onset of
the forecast period beginning Tuesday, leading to a drier and hotter
midweek time frame. PoPs won`t be shut off entirely but instead
relegated mainly to far north Georgia Tuesday and Wednesday
in the form of isolated to widely scattered convection. Tuesday and
Wednesday will be the hottest days of the week with highs ranging
mainly from the upper 80s to low 90s, some 8-12 degrees above
normal, though record highs are unlikely to be threatened.

The ridge will flatten by Wednesday night into Thursday while at
the surface a cold front will make subtle southward progress toward
the Mid-Mississippi Valley. As convection initiates near the front
on Wednesday, model guidance continues to indicate the potential for
convective complex(es) to propagate east-southeastward Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. There is thus the potential for at
least peripheral to perhaps more direct MCS impacts to parts of
north Georgia during this time frame, and the possibility for severe
thunderstorms would also concomitantly increase.

The cold front will make more substantial southward progress across
the Tennessee Valley on Thursday with PoPs remaining elevated in
advance of the front. The front then gets a shove into and
across our area Thursday night into Friday, with elevated PoPs
shifting southward across the area in advance of the front on
Friday. The associated severe potential will need to be monitored
Thursday and Friday as well as 0-6 km bulk shear of 50+ kts would
support a damaging wind threat, and supportive lapse rates could
also lead to a hail threat.

A much cooler and drier airmass will establish itself in the wake
of the front by the weekend with below normal temperatures likely
to make a return.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 736 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Early morning storms have helped cigs across the metro airports keep
out of the LIFR clouds. Some patchy low cigs are possible this
morning, but will only tempo the low cigs. VFR conditions expected
for the remainder of the period. Morning convection may delay any
afternoon convection initiation, and confidence is low on exactly
where storms will fire. Will add a VCSH around 17-18Z. SW winds
during the day will likely go VRB again overnight.


//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence morning ceilings and afternoon precipitation
chances.
High confidence all other elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          64  82  63  86 /  40  60  40  20
Atlanta         66  83  65  86 /  40  50  30  20
Blairsville     61  76  60  80 /  60  60  50  40
Cartersville    63  82  62  86 /  50  60  30  20
Columbus        67  88  66  89 /  30  20  20  10
Gainesville     64  80  64  85 /  40  60  40  30
Macon           66  86  65  88 /  30  20  20  10
Rome            65  82  64  86 /  60  60  30  30
Peachtree City  65  85  64  87 /  30  40  30  10
Vidalia         68  86  67  90 /  30  30  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for GAZ024-025-
027-035>039-046>051-057>062-071>076-081>086-094>098-107>113.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...NListemaa