014
FNUS28 KWNS 052025
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0323 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024

Valid 071200Z - 131200Z

Critical fire weather conditions will persist into the middle of the
work week across the southern High Plains where fuels are currently
the driest across the country. A broad swath of westerly mid-level
flow will remain in place across the central/southern Rockies
through the middle of the work week in the wake of a progressive
upper low (currently in place over the Great Basin). This will
maintain a westerly downslope flow regime over the central/southern
High Plains through at least D4/Wednesday before a cool, continental
air mass overspreads the central/southern Plains. Elsewhere across
the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall
will limit fire weather concerns.

...D3/Tuesday and D4/Wednesday - Southern High Plains...
Medium to long-range guidance continues to show reasonably good
agreement in the evolution of the synoptic regime over the southern
CONUS. Persistent 40-60 knot mid-level flow is forecast to remain in
place over NM/CO both days, which will maintain some form of lee
troughing and breezy westerly pressure gradient winds. Little to no
appreciable rainfall or moisture recovery of an antecedent dry air
mass is expected through mid-week, and downslope warming/drying will
promote afternoon RH minimums into the single digits to low teens
both days across eastern NM and far western TX. Multiple preceding
days of dry conditions will also favor an expansion of available
fuels by Tues/Wed that should support the fire weather concern.

Widespread critical fire weather conditions appear most probable
across eastern NM/far western TX on D3/Tuesday when lee troughing is
forecast to be strongest. Medium-range ensemble guidance shows
fairly high (75%) probability for gradient wind speeds greater than
20 mph with stronger gusts likely. With confidence in critical wind
speeds increasing, the 70% probability risk area has been extended
southward into southeast NM and adjacent portions of far western TX.
On D4/Wednesday, a cold front pushing into the south-central Plains
will limit the potential for robust lee troughing, shunting stronger
surface pressure falls southward towards the Rio Grande Valley.
Breezy westerly winds will likely be confined to southern NM where
the surface pressure gradient should be the strongest, though a few
solutions hint that critical conditions may develop further north in
the lee of more prominent terrain features.

Beyond D4/Wednesday, a cooler continental air mass will continue to
push into the southern Plains with weakening zonal flow aloft. Areas
of dry/breezy conditions are possible, but will likely be confined
to eastern AZ/southwest NM. Rain chances are forecast to increase
towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern
High Plains, which should further limit fire potential.

..Moore.. 05/05/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$