352
FXUS62 KILM 200444
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1244 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and drier air will move into the area to start
off the work week. Temperatures warm through mid week with rain
chances not returning until late Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
No big changes with the latest update. Main near term concern is
the threat for low clouds moving in from the northeast through
around daybreak. Low-level winds should remain a bit too strong
for much fog but can`t rule out some, mainly in sheltered rural
locales.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Other than the potential for lingering showers into the evening,
mainly southern areas, the big question for the near term is
when clouds will depart/dissipate. Forecast shows improving
skies tonight into Monday but it should be noted that abundant
moisture trapped below an inversion in the low levels could
delay this process into Monday. Lows tonight should fall to the
upper 50s to lower 60s with highs Monday in the upper 70s to
lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry weather continues for the duration of this period as sfc
high pressure over the Carolinas gradually shifts east and
offshore through the week, with weak mid-level ridging in
place. This will allow for increasing temps each day...highs
mainly in the low 80s Tuesday rising to around 90 by Thursday.
Otherwise, expect daily sea breezes with skies averaging mostly
sunny/clear.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low chances for rain return with shortwave energy passing
through the fairly zonal flow aloft. Daily sea breeze will also
aid in afternoon convection with a warm and moist airmass in
place. PoPs are consistent each day (20-40%) with the fairly
stagnant pattern in place. Some guidance (e.g. 12Z ECMWF) even
keeps it dry most days with shortwave energy staying just off
to the north. Temps remain slightly above normal with highs
averaging in the mid/upr 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Generally VFR to start the 06Z TAF period across SE NC and NE
SC. Still leaning toward VFR at all 5 TAF sites through the
period with high pressure in control, although some low-level
moisture will be present so can`t rule out MVFR cigs, especially
at KILM around daybreak.

Extended Outlook...VFR will dominate with early morning vis or
cig restrictions possible each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...Expect NE winds of 10 to 15 KT tonight and
Monday with 20 KT possible nearer 20 NM on Monday. Seas will
generally run 2 to 4 FT through the period, though 2 footers
will be confined to areas sheltered from NE flow Monday.

Monday Night through Friday...Sub-SCA conditions will continue.
Sfc high pressure over the Carolinas slowly slides farther
offshore through the week, with southerly flow becoming
established Wednesday afternoon through Friday, no higher than
10-15 kt. After 2-4 ft seas Monday night, expect only 1-3 ft
heights with a weak ESE 9-10 second swell component for the
remainder of the week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for SCZ056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RJB/31
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...MAS/31