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000
FXUS61 KILN 221748
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
148 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. A SECONDARY
TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AGAIN ON THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PREDICTABILITY OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
REMAINS LOW WITH SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A WIDE RANGE
OF POSSIBLE SCENARIOS. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
PARTS OF INDIANA. AS THEY LIFT NORTHEAST THESE SHOWERS WILL ONLY
CLIP SOME OF THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES UNLESS THERE IS FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP IN EAST
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

STILL QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH IS LIMITING HEATING. GREATEST INSTABILITY IS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND EXPECT THAT TO REMAIN THE CASE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME MODEST ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION AND
LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM A SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST. WITH
UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. APPEARS THAT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LARGELY BE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
INSTABILITY IS HIGHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE ILN CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...PRODUCING A RELATIVELY SMALL CHANGE IN THE
TEMPERATURE AND WIND FIELDS. BEHIND THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME LESS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

A SECONDARY TROUGH (BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE) WILL BE
ROTATING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
RENEWED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY WEAK...BUT JUST
ENOUGH FOR SOME RISK OF THUNDER. THE AIR MASS ALOFT WILL BE
INCREASINGLY COLD...HELPING TO LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

ALONG WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...MUCH
BETTER DEFINED THAN THE FIRST. A NNW WIND SHIFT WILL ALLOW FOR
COLD ADVECTION TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY (AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
NIGHT). AS A RESULT...THE MAX TEMP GRADIENT FOR THURSDAY IS
SOMEWHAT SHARP (ABOUT 10 DEGREES FROM SW TO NE) AND THURSDAY
NIGHT MIN TEMPS MAY GET INTO THE 30S IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA.

WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE ON SATURDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA
EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE A DEVELOPING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
LINGER ACROSS KENTUCKY. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EACH DAY TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
NORTHERN LOCATIONS ENJOYING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 70S ON THURSDAY
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL 60S ON FRIDAY UNDER CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN GRADUALLY REBOUND FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 70S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WHEN/IF
STORMS MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS. SO FOR THE INITIAL ISSUANCE HAVE
KEPT A VCTS IN FOR THE PERIOD OF HIGHER PROBABILITY. OUTSIDE OF
ANY STORMS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND WELL INTO
THE NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 00Z AND SLOWLY
VEER. APPEARS THAT MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP REGION WIDE LATE
TONIGHT ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE IN THIS OCCURRING.
CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AT MOST PLACES LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...