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187
FXUS61 KILN 072001
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
401 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of showers and storms are expected through
Thursday amidst a continued warm and humid pattern. Afterwards,
cooler and slightly drier conditions are expected, though shower
chances can not be ruled out through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Showers are starting to spring up west and south of the CWA and
are expected to fill in relatively quickly with daytime heating
creating a rapidly destabilizing atmosphere. They will quickly
become deeper convection with thunderstorms. If discrete cells
maintain a decent margin from surrounding upstream storms, shear
and instability will act to promote supercell activity. Right
turning cells will also be a favored track given the southerly
inflow of moisture and right-handed curved hodographs.

Models remain in a various state of how these storms evolve,
but they should end nw-se overnight. A few depict a brief linear
evolution in the southern/southeast forecast area with training,
but most have pushed the precip into the south by 09Z and out of
the CWA by 12Z.

Overnight lows will drop from near 60 in the northwest to near
65 in northern KY and southern OH.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Deeply uniform southwest flow develops ahead of a l/w trough
north of the region with a wsw-ene orientation. Later in the
day, s/w energy will cross and mark the beginning of the next
round of showers and storms. Indications are that these storms
may be knocking on southwest CWA towards 00Z but the consensus
is to hold off until after this time but rapidly ramp up the
precip. Overnight, with a continual flow of moisture leading to
pwats >1.5". If the storms train in a nw-se orientation as some
markers are favoring, flooding will become the primary threat.

The favored location of the heavier rain looks to be over the
southeast third of the CWA, ending by daybreak Thursday.

Unless a decently opaque blowoff of cirrus precedes this rain,
temperatures are expected to reach 80 in the north, 85 in the
south. More of the same with the humid airmass is expected
overnight. Lows will again be in the upper 50s in the north, low
60s for the remainder of the forecast area.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Thursday will see more dry air working in, but lingering lighter
showers remain a possibility in most of the region, slightly
less so in the southwest. This is as yet another s/w piece of
energy gets pushed ene ahead of the l/w trough, prompting a
surface circulation to move east through the CWA. Trailing this
surface low, a cold front will turn winds sharply to the north
overnight, with lows dropping to a significantly cooler range
from the upper 40s to around 50.

This cooler air bottoms out highs on Friday in the lower 60s,
and clearing sky cover overnight drops overnight readings to
within a degree or two of 45.

The next upper trough works in on Saturday, with a ssw flow over
the region. The upper trough and potential surface circulation
will maximize the threat of rain in the extended forecast
Saturday afternoon. While this sw flow will only bump highs a
little bit on Saturday from Friday, lows should be a carbon-
copy from the night before. This flow will begin to modify the
airmass a little warmer each day through the remainder of the
forecast.

A not unusual variance in model depictions for the longer term
necessitates some inclusion of lower chance pops for both
Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures are expected to trend
towards normal as they should, and likely rise to above normal
Mon/Tue, but not to the extent that we`ve been seeing in the
here and now.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Thunderstorms have exited CVG/LUK/DAY and some stratiform rain
will remain over DAY for the next 1/2 hour or so. ILN will see
about an hour`s worth of rain with the bulk of the thunder
occurring before 18:30Z. Less strong storms with a marked
decrease in electrical activity should be working into CMH/LCK
shortly after 19Z. A slightly longer period of widely spaced
convective cells will be followed by an also slightly longer
time with stratiform rain in central Ohio.

With the expected next round of severe weather later today and
this evening, TAFs will need to be amended as needed. Right now,
cells that develop should be scattered, and merge to produce
more widespread activity. Cells that remain on their own have
the best chances to evolve into supercellular storms.

Daytime heating and increasing instability with backing winds
and a bump in low level moisture will promote this second round
of storms. Storms in this later environment will be more
discrete and scattered versus coming in as a line, so VCTS
seemed to be the better forecast for everyone attm. Storms exit
to the south-southeast, first at DAY around 03Z, then by 05Z at
the remaining TAF sites.

Outside of thunderstorm activity, ceilings and visibilities should
remain VFR.

Clouds will begin to decrease after 06Z as the weather system
exits east. Will need to watch for stratus/fog development in
the pre-dawn hours if the clouds clear early.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday into
Wednesday night. MVFR/IFR CIGs are possible Wednesday night into
early Thursday and again on Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...Franks