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000
FXUS61 KILN 180236
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1036 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED INTO
SW OHIO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MODERATE INSTBY THIS AFTN. THESE
STORMS MOVED NORTH AND HAVE WEAKENED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTBY...LEAVING SOME SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWERS ACRS
THE NORTH. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AND PUSHING
NORTH BEFORE FALLING APART.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS KENTUCKY INTO SRN OHIO
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL S/W WHICH WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE FROM
WRN TN VLY INTO OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. THIS UPPER
SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE
REGION WHICH WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. CONTINUED TO GO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE WARMER MOS FOR LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S FAR NORTH
TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL LINGER NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
DEFINITE DIURNAL COMPONENT TO CONVECTION. BUT DO EXPECT ACTIVITY
TO BE POSSIBLE WELL INTO THE NIGHT. HIGHER POPS WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. BUT STILL A DECENT CHANCE IN THE
NORTH ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY. DID NOT SEE ANY REASON TO VARY
MUCH FROM A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE FA ON SUNDAY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD SUNDAY
NIGHT.  WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE
FA ON SUNDAY.  MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY
WITH ONLY A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA IN THE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW.

AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM NR
IND TO CVG WHICH PROVIDED A FAVORABLE AXIS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED NORTH IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH
BLYR CAPES AROUND 1R00 J/KG. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTH AND WEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH BLYR CAPES DROPPING BELOW 1000
J/KG. HAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE NRN TAF SITES FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE FCST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THREAT.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL S/W OVER THE LOWER MS VLY WILL LIFT
SLOWLY NE INTO THE OHIO OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE
REMAINING ACROSS OUR SOUTH...WOULD EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
LINGERING SHOWERS TO BE AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. WILL INCLUDE
SOME MVFR BR LATER TONIGHT AT THE TAF SITES TOO...BUT THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW MANY BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE CLOUDS. HAVE A MENTION
OF VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AT KCVG/KLUK AND THEN
SAT MORNING AT KILN AND KDAY. WITH MARGINAL INSTBY DEVELOPING ON
SATURDAY EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS DURG THE AFTN. BEST COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF VCTS
AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...PRIMARILY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...AR