362
FXUS61 KILN 301751
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
151 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Tranquil weather conditions are expected through midweek before
rain and storm chances return Friday and continue periodically
into early next week. Above normal temperatures are expected for
the foreseeable future, with very little sign of a notable push
of cooler and drier air through at least early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A small band of SHRA continues to push E through the lower
Scioto Valley and NE KY early this afternoon, with clearing
evolving for many locales near/W of I-71. Suppose that a very
spotty/ISO TSRA cannot be ruled out in the SE quarter or so of
the ILN FA mid afternoon, but expect that most spots will trend
drier by late afternoon/early evening, with increasingly sunny
conditions by late day.

FEW/SCT Cu have developed in the immediate wake of the pcpn as
some LL moisture gradually mixes out into the afternoon.
Nevertheless, skies will trend much clearer by late afternoon
from W to E, with a corresponding late-day jump in temps
expected as highs top out in the mid 70s near/W of I-71. Could
even see some upper 70s in parts of SE IN/N KY, with cooler
temps further to the E in NE KY and the lower Scioto Valley
where cloud cover will hang on a bit longer into late afternoon.

Quiet conditions are on tap for tonight as weak sfc high
pressure briefly builds into the region overnight before
drifting E by Wed AM. The only real item of note for the
overnight will be the potential for some fog development,
especially in NE KY and south-central OH in locations that won`t
have much time to "dry out" before sunset. Additional fog
develop near/in area river valleys, especially along the OH Rvr
as the LL flow goes calm tonight amidst clear skies and some
residual LL/near-ground moisture.

Lows tonight dip into the lower 50s in central/south-central OH
and NE KY to the mid 50s W of I-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Any patchy to areas of fog should burn off early Wed AM,
especially as LL flow increases and some cloud cover moves in
through mid-morning. This cloud cover will be associated with a
weakening/dying MCS that should fall apart completely before it
approaches from the W around daybreak.

A weak front will sag SE into the local area during the
afternoon/early evening, but forcing and lift along the boundary
should be rather meager. Suppose that a brief/spotty SHRA or
TSRA cannot be completely ruled out mid afternoon into early
evening along the front (especially near the I-71 corridor), but
kept the fcst dry for now given expected lack of coverage
(should anything develop at all) due to persistence of a cap.

Regardless of whether we are able to get a spotty SHRA/TSRA to
sprout Wed afternoon/early evening, it will certainly /feel/
like early summer as highs reach into the upper 70s and lower
80s with sfc DPs in the mid 60s ahead of the front. Behind the
front (EC IN and WC OH), sfc DPs will fall into the upper
40s/lower 50s late in the day.

Lows Wednesday night dip into the mid 50s (WC OH and central
OH) to lower 60s (near/S of OH Rvr) amidst dry conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
H5 ridge axis remains firmly planted across the Midwest region
Wednesday night. Continued ridge amplification continues into
Thursday, with height rises leading to warmer daytime highs in the
lower to middle 80s. With surface flow still having an easterly
component to it, dewpoints will be fairly reasonable, primarily in
the 50s for most. Surface high pressure will keep conditions dry at
the surface through Thursday and likely Thursday night.

Mean ridge axis translates eastward as we head into Friday. A
longwave trough will be positioned across a large portion of the
western and central CONUS. A shortwave embedded in this trough will
propagate through the Ohio Valley on Friday. This will lead to
favorable chances for showers and some thunderstorms as well given
the influx of marginal instability.

Depending on timing of this upper level feature, some precip will
linger into Saturday. This far out, it is still uncertain how long
precip will linger, but it seems that by Saturday night that we will
briefly dry back out. As of now, Sunday is trending drier across our
fa as the primary shortwave ejects eastward. However, it does appear
that another shortwave feature will usher in precip to our fa again
on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A few SHRA continue to dot the landscape SE of the local
terminals early this afternoon. Expect this activity will
continue to move away from the local sites, with dry conditions
likely through the TAF period for all sites. This being said,
cannot /completely/ rule out a stray SHRA/TSRA Wednesday
afternoon as a front moves into the local area, but confidence
in such occurrence is too low to add even a VC at this time.

VFR Cu should wane in coverage late afternoon into early evening
as /slightly/ drier air (briefly) filters into the area.
Clearing conditions will evolve toward/beyond sunset as the
cirrus, too, pushes E of the region. This, combined with
light/calm winds and residual near-ground moisture, should
promote the development of some shallow BR/FG, especially for
KLUK and in other river valley locales. This may lead to IFR, or
worse, VSBYs at times in the several hours around daybreak for
KLUK before VFR conditions return area-wide by 14z Wednesday.
Could also see some brief MVFR VSBYs at KILN between 09z-12z,
but did not yet have confidence to include in the fcst.

Some mid clouds will work into the area Wednesday morning, with
SCT VFR Cu development expected by 18z.

Light WNW winds around 7-9kts this afternoon will go
calm/light/VRB by/past 00z before going southerly after 12z
Wednesday. SW winds around 12-15kts, with gusts to 18-20kts,
will develop past 15z Wednesday through the end of the period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms and MVFR cigs possible Friday afternoon
into Saturday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...KC