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000
FXUS61 KILN 160836
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
436 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS KENTUCKY TONIGHT...PRODUCING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
LOCATION AROUND THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY TAKE CONTROL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF CONVECTION MOVG OUT OF INDIANA AND INTO OHIO IS BEING
DRIVEN BY AN H5 S/W IN THE QUICK ZONAL FLOW. EXPECT THE CONVECTION
TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES E...BUT IT SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER
TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE N. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL BY MID
MORNING...EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING TO COMBINE WITH A SFC FRONT THAT
SAGS INTO THE AREA TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS AFTN.
WENT WITH BEST POPS IN DURING THE AFTN HOURS AND IN THE E. KEPT
POPS LIKELY IN THE I-71 CORRIDOR AND HIGH CHC ELSEWHERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH UP TO AROUND 80 AGAIN TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SFC FRONT SAGS DOWN INTO KY OVERNIGHT. WEAK CONVERGENCE NR THE
FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP CHC POPS OF CONVECTION IN THE S
OVERNIGHT. NRN LOCATIONS SHOULD BE DRY HOWEVER. THE FRONT REMAINS
STALLED ACROSS KY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE
ACROSS SRN LOCATIONS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...A SECONDARY FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE ENUF CONVERGENCE WITH THIS SECOND
FRONT TO GIVE A SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY.

CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT...ALLOWING
THEM TO ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 60S. A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ON
MONDAY WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION.
COOLER AREA THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE N AND THE LOWER 80S IN THE S.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD SE PROVIDING GENERAL DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND.

UPR FLOW TO BECOME WESTERLY WITH SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES
NEXT WEEKEND. WILL ALLOW A LOW POP CHC FOR PRECIP TO RETURN LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WITH THE BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS INTO MID WEEK THEN
RECOVER TO READINGS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY
WILL HAVE A WEAK COLD FRONT/WINDS SHIFT CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. UNTIL
THE SHOWERS OCCUR...VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE FOUND AND SOME VFR
SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS IS
PARTICULARLY TRUE AT KDAY WHERE UPSTREAM SHOWERS STAND THE BEST
CHANCE OF HOLDING TOGETHER THROUGH SUNRISE.

PREVAILING SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IN THE 16-20Z TIME FRAME AND SHOULD
BE MVFR IN NATURE. LOW LEVEL LEFT-OVER MOISTURE BEHIND IT MAY
CAUSE SOME MVFR TO IFR FOG...ESPECIALLY FOR KCVG DURING THE
COOLEST PART OF THE PREDAWN HOURS TOMORROW. DEPENDING ON THE
EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE AND THE COOLER AIR COMING IN...IFR CIGS MAY
ALSO OCCUR AT THE TAIL END OF THE VALID TAFS AND AT KCVG FOR THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE 30 HOUR TAF.

OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS