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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 150234
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1034 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak cold front will drop south across the area tonight. This
front will then likely stall out over northern Kentucky on
Monday. Much above normal temperatures are then expected through
most of the week, with periods of showers and storms through at
least midweek. Cooler and drier conditions should return by
next weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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A weak cold front will make its way slowly south into our area
overnight. There still could be a low chance of a shower or
thunderstorm, mainly across the north, through early morning.
Skies will vary between mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows will
remain warm, ranging from the lower 50s north to the lower 60s
south.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Stalled frontal near the Ohio River Monday with clouds along
and north of the front. The extensive early day cloud cover is
expected to scatter some as we head into the afternoon. South of
the front, more favorable low level moisture and daytime
heating will lead to the development of scattered convection.
ILN/s far southern counties across Northern KY look to be on the
northern periphery of the instability axis and the potential
for isold convection. Have a slight chance of a thunderstorm
across the far south during the afternoon.

Highs Monday will range from the lower 70s north to near 80
south of the Ohio River.

Leading edge of 20-25 kt southerly 8H jet to offer isentropic
lift and moisture increase across the far southwest overnight
Monday. Better coverage of storms to remain to our west with a
slight chance of storms encroaching north into southwest Ohio
and southeast IN late. Mild temperatures to continue with lows
from the upper 40s northeast to near 60 southwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A warm front will be lifting north through the area on Tuesday
east of a low in the central Plains. Showers and thunderstorms
will be possible along and near the front throughout the day
until the front lifts north of the area. Forecast soundings do
not show a great overlap of shear and instability, thus the
severe risk remains fairly low at this time. Winds shift to the
south/southeast behind the front and forecast highs reach into
the 70s.

Shower and thunderstorm chances grow once again Tuesday night
through Wednesday evening when forcing increases ahead of the
eastward-moving low. Forcing appears to be fairly strong with a
cold front, a fairly strong vorticity max, and the poleward exit
region of a jet streak moving through the Ohio Valley. In this
setup, shear will be strong. If instability can overlap with
diurnal heating, a chance for strong to severe storms may
develop. However, given strong forcing and anomalously high
PWATS, widespread rain may lower the chance for instability
developing on Wednesday.

The cold front likely passes through on Wednesday night
bringing chances for showers and storms to an end. Temperatures
cool off behind the front for the end of the week. A few chances
for showers are possible during the second half of the week as
another reinforcing cold front is possible.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak cold front will slowly drift southeast into the region
tonight. There could be a low chance of a shower or storm near
the northern terminals early on (between 00Z and 06Z), but the
threat should then diminish and shift southeast. VFR ceilings
and visibilities are expected for the most part. There is some
concern for lower clouds to form across southern terminals, but
confidence is not high enough to go with any BKN ceilings at
this time.

On Monday, the weak front will drift southward into northern
Kentucky where it will likely stall out. There will be a low
chance for an afternoon and evening shower/storm there.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected as the low level flow
shifts to the north then northeast between 5 and 10 knots.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Tuesday night into Wednesday
night. MVFR ceilings possible Thursday. MVFR conditions possible
Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman/AR
NEAR TERM...Hickman/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Hickman