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000
FXUS61 KILN 141243
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
843 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IN CANADA WILL DRAPE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LINGER BETWEEN THE INTERSTATE AND THE OHIO
RIVER THROUGH FRIDAY...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR RAIN DURING THIS
TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FAIR AMOUNT OF AC CONTINUES TO DRIFT DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
MORNING. SOME RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PART OF OUR FA. WHILE MOST OF THIS APPEARS TO NOT BE REACHING THE
GROUND...A FEW SPRINKLES ARE NOT OUR OF THE QUESTION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE
IN CLOUDS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY. IF THE CLOUDS HANG AROUND
LONG ENOUGH...THEY COULD IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...WILL GO AHEAD AND TRIM TEMPS BACK A
BIT...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD HANG IN THE
LONGEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SOUTH
WINDS PULL IN WARMER AIR. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LAY OUT OVER THE
NORTHERN CWA WED NIGHT AND LINGER OVER THE CWA IN A W-E
ORIENTATION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FOR THE BETTER PART OF THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME RAIN OVER NORTHERN CWA COULD START AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EVEN WITH THE PROLONGED NATURE OF SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE MORE OF A BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL THAN ONE THAT WOULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID
80S ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE RAIN HAMPERS HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE OHIO RIVER WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE POPS SOUTH AND ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS NORTH ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH.

A GENERAL LULL IN PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACRS THE SOUTH EARLY AND THEN END ALL POPS
OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO NUDGE A LTL NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING. WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHC DURG THE AFTN INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. HIGHS A LTL WARMER ON SATURDAY...RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 70S NORTH TO AROUND 80 SOUTH.

PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF TO MOVE INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION
SUNDAY AND THE UPR MS VLY MONDAY. FRONT EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF
ILN FA WITH THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR. BEST MOISTURE AND
FORCING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SUNDAY. WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHC
POPS ACRS THE FAR NORTH IN THE AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM WITH HIGHS FROM 80 NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH.

WILL ALLOW CHC POPS TO OVERSPREAD THE FA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AS THE
FLOW BACKS HAD OF THE DEEP PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF. DUE TO CLOUDS
AND PRECIP HAVE TEMPS BACK IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST SATELLITE LOOP AND MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING THAT THE AC THAT
WAS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE TAFS TODAY WILL MOVE E QUICKER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SO HAVE AC CIGS AT THE TAFS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...WITH CVG/LUK SCATTERING OUT BY 14Z. LOOKS LIKE HE AC WILL
LINGER PAST 18Z AT CMH/LCK.

WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.


WINDS WILL DROP OFF BY 00Z AND SKIES SHOULD REMAIN SCT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES