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000
FXUS61 KILN 111950
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
350 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The active weather pattern continues with additional showers and
storms through this evening. Showers persist tonight through
the daylight hours on Friday before drier conditions return for
the start of the weekend. Gusty winds are expected tonight and
Friday, with mild temperatures trending below normal on Friday
before warming up once again for the upcoming weekend. Much
above normal temperatures are expected by early next week with
more rain and storms possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Vigorous negatively tilted mid level shortwave to eject
northeast thru the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes as it gets
absorbed into the long wave trof.

Elongated deep surface low to track northeast to a position
over Lake Erie this evening. As showers and storms redevelop
back north across the area hi-res model solutions continue to
keep the strongest storms east of ILN/s area with a secondary
area of convection over the west close to the frontal axis. The
main threat looks to be heavy rain and flooding with the western
storms with a marginal wind threat. WOFOS 90th percentile (high
end) suggests the potential for 1 to 1.5 inches of rain with the
front with the highest totals over eastern Indiana and southwest
Ohio.

With a very saturated ground and observing responses on area
creeks and streams from earlier rainfall will continue the flood
flood watch thru 06Z.

As the surface low lifts off to the northeast, a sharp wind
shift is expected with the frontal passage between 222Z and 01Z
from west to east. Strong west-northwest winds to develop with
wind gusts up to 30-35kts late this evening into the overnight.
The rain showers taper off this evening, with dry conditions
for several hours before wraparound showers move back in during
the predawn hours.

Temperatures to drop to lows from the mid 40s northwest to the
upper 40s southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Deepening mid and upper level low settles into the Great Lakes
Friday with a digging shortwave pivoting thru the Ohio Valley.

This shortwave will offer persistent to keep rain showers
thru the day with perhaps even a rumble of thunder over the
southeast in the afternoon. West winds of 20-25 mph will gust
to 35-40 mph. Highs will top out from the lower 50s northeast to
the upper 50s southwest.

As the mid level low begins to shift east the rain showers will
begin to taper off from the west to east late in the day into
the early evening. Clouds to erode from the southwest with skies
becoming clear overnight. Lows to range from 40 to 45. The
strong west winds will begin to subside during the evening with
gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range overnight.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure covering much of the CONUS is forecast to provide dry
weather on Saturday. A disturbance pushing through the Great Lakes
will bring a low chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday night
and Sunday, along with gusty winds. Dry weather returns with high
pressure on Monday. Potent low pressure tracking to the Great Lakes
is expected to bring a more prolonged threat for showers and
thunderstorms accompanied by gusty winds Tuesday and Wednesday.
Chance for showers and thunderstorms persists on Thursday under
disturbance ahead of the next low pressure system.

Near normal high temperatures in the 60s are forecast for Saturday
in the circulation around the high. As the high translates farther
east, warm advection on a southerly flow coupled with insolation
will cause readings to rise into the 70s on Sunday, then up to the
mid 70s to low 80s for Monday through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Vigorous negatively tilted mid level shortwave over the TN
Valley to continue ejecting northeast across the area as an 80
KT jet rotates around it`s east side. Elongated deep surface
low to track northeast to a position over Lake Erie this
evening. As showers and storms pivot north back into the area
hi-res model solutions continue to keep the strongest storms
east of ILN/s area with a secondary area of convection over the
west close to the frontal axis. The main threat looks to be
heavy rain and flooding with the western storms with a marginal
wind threat.

As the low pivots north the front will sweep east thru the
TAF sites during the late afternoon/very early evening.
Thunderstorm chances will end but the threat for showers will
continue into the evening with MVFR ceilings dropping to IFR.
As showers temporary end later tonight the ceilings will
improve to MVFR and remain MVFR until late in the day Friday.

Southeast to south winds around 12kts with gusts of 18-20kts
through 22z-01z. The front will then sweep east during this
time frame, resulting in a sharp wind shift to the WNW
with sustained winds of 15-20kts and gusts to around 30kts.

Westerly winds will gust up 32kts overnight and continue
thru Friday morning with gusts into the lower 30s possible
by Friday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings will continue at times through Friday
afternoon into Friday evening. Wind gusts of 30 knots or
greater are likely Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Friday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
     051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Friday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Friday for INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...AR