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000
FXUS61 KILN 131858
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
258 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will allow dry weather to persist tonight into
Sunday. Low pressure tracking across the Great Lakes will bring
a threat for showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night. High pressure and dry air are expected to move
back in for Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A ridge of high pressure pushing across the Ohio Valley from
west to east will continue to provide dry weather through
tonight. Northwest winds gusting over 20 knots will subside
tonight while direction backs to southwest. Under clear skies,
temperatures will fall off into the upper 40s to low 50s by 6am.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Skies will remain mainly clear early Sunday as high pressure
shifts east while low pressure advances to the Great Lakes. As
the low continues to move quickly east Sunday afternoon and
evening, clouds and winds will increase and showers and
thunderstorms may develop along a boundary trailing across Ohio
from the low. Thanks to ample instability and potent wind fields
near the boundary, some strong to severe storms will be
possible, mainly east of Dayton along I-70. While we are in a
marginal risk for severe weather on the SPC day 2 outlook, a
better threat for severe thunderstorms will exist to the east of
ILN where deeper moisture and stronger instability will be
present.

Temperatures boosted by warm advection on the southwest low
level flow are forecast to reach the mid and upper 70s,
followed by lows Sunday night in the low 50s to around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak influence of high pressure will keep the forecast dry for much
of the CWA on Monday. A mild air mass will be in place and allow for
surface temperatures to reach the mid to upper 70s for most, with
perhaps some locations south of the OH River hitting the 80 degree
mark.

The pattern quickly turns active however for the rest of the work
week. A longwave H5 trough will carve its way through the southern
CONUS. By Tuesday, a surface low will have developed and
strengthened on the lee side of the Rockies. An elongated warm front
from this low will stretch eastward into the Ohio Valley, placing
ILN firmly in the warm sector for most of Tuesday. Scattered showers
and a few storms expected in this warm sector of the low. As the
surface low continues to trek eastward, better forcing will create
better chances for showers/storms, with the best coverage expected
on Wednesday with the approaching cold front.

Slightly cooler air settles into the region on Thursday, but
temperatures still remain near or just above seasonal normals. A
shortwave feature to our north keeps PoPs in the forecast through
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR is forecast to continue as high pressure tracks across TAF
sites. There will be mainly clear skies through tonight in the
very dry airmass. Northwest winds gusting over 20 knots early in
the forecast will subside and back to southwest tonight. Wind
shear is indicated late tonight to Sunday morning under a
strengthening low level jet.

For Sunday, a disturbance moving to the Great Lakes will allow
increasing clouds, while winds gust over 20 knots again during
the afternoon. Kept any mention of thunder out of the forecast
since storm development is expected farther east and after 18z.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible late Sunday, Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...Coniglio