000
FXUS61 KILN 170129
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
929 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SLOWLY TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE SOUTH...A
FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ON MONDAY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL LINGER ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY
SWINGS THROUGH FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
PCPN HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED ACRS THE CWFA. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO TURN INTO STRATUS
AND/OR FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL NOT CLEAR AT THIS POINT HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS MAY BECOME...SO KEPT SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BURN OFF DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUPPRESSED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...MODELS PREDICT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR
MONDAY. WENT WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY...AND A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN PART. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE
EXPECTED.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH WILL BRING INCREASING CONVERGENCE...VORTICITY...AND
MOISTURE. THIS WARRANTS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION WITH FLOW
VEERING FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MAIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WITH THE NUMERICAL MODELS
INDICATING A SECONDARY SFC FRONT WHICH DROPS SOUTH THRU OHIO ON
TUESDAY. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACRS THE
SOUTH.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL END ANY MENTION OF PRECIP
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SE BECOMING CENTERED OVER
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND OFFER TEMPERATURES A LTL BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND CLOSE TO
NORMAL THURSDAY.

A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS A LTL EAST INTO THE MID MS VLY NEXT
WEEKEND. AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...THE NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE POINTING TO THE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES. THERE ARE THE EXPECTED DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES IN THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE...WILL
LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

UPR FLOW TO BECOME WESTERLY WITH SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES
NEXT SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE A LOW POP CHC FOR PRECIP WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER TONIGHT. AS IT DOES...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALSO PUSH SOUTH
AS WELL. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER...MAY ALLOW
STRATUS AND/OR FOG TO DEVELOP AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE FORMATION OF STRATUS
AND/OR FOG. HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP THIS THREAT IN THE TAFS.
DEVELOPMENT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO OCCUR BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z. AS
SUCH...CEILINGS SHOULD DROP AT OR BELOW 500 FEET (EXCEPT FOR KLUK
WHICH IS IN THE RIVER VALLEY) WITH VSBYS IN THE 1 TO 2 MILE RANGE.
IF MORE STRATUS FORMS...FOG FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD NOT BECOME
DENSE. HOWEVER...IF LESS STRATUS FORMS...FOG AND VSBYS MAY BECOME
MORE OF A BIGGER ISSUE.

ON MONDAY...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
OHIO RIVER. STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BURN OFF DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BEING REPLACED BY VFR SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS. THERE IS A
SMALL THREAT OF A POP UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OR SOUTH OF
THE OHIO. GIVEN THE SMALL THREAT...HAVE KEPT THE KCVG/KLUK TAFS
DRY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HOW SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THUS
BRING A LITTLE HIGHER RISK OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE...THE 30 HOUR KCVG TAF HAS BEEN LEFT
DRY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN