000
FXUS61 KILN 240825
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
425 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THIS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION...OFFERING
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH TROF OVER OHIO SHIFTING
EAST TODAY. THIS PLACES THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN...CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD SE INTO THE REGION TODAY. BAND OF LOW CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CAA WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH GIVING WAY TO
CLEARING TODAY. EXPECT TO SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BUT AFTER A
COLD START AND WITH AN H8 COLD POOL OF 2 TO -2 ACRS THE OHIO TODAY
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FCST HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM UPPER 50S NE TO THE LOWER/MID 60S SW.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN NW FLOW PATTERN...SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SE BECOMING CENTERED
OVER THE REGION SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS...AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO
A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
FROM THE MID/UPR 30S FAR EAST TO THE LOWER 40S WEST. HAVE INCLUDED A
MENTION OF PATCHY FROST IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY OF FROST IN THE HWO PRODUCT.

EXPECT MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO SPILL OVER THE UP STREAM RIDGE
WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE SW SATURDAY. WAA PRECIP
AND DEEPER MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SW. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS STILL 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NE TO THE UPR 60S SW.

SATURDAY NIGHTS LOWS TO CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER
40S NE TO ABOUT 50 SW...WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.

A DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN PRECIP SPILLING SE
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
RAIN SHOWER SPILL INTO OUR FAR SW SUNDAY BUT WITH BEST LIFT AND MSTR
TO OUR SW...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
MODERATE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPR 60S NE TO ABOUT 70 SW.



&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PREVAIL WITH GENERAL
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE OHIO VALLEY. GFS IS SHOWING A S/W
UNDERCUTTING H5 RIDGE AND BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
MONDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE CONSISTENT FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST BUT
THE EUROPEAN IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING THIS FEATURE MUCH
FURTHER SOUTHWEST AS AN ELEVATED CONVERGENT BAND AT THIS TIME.

THE EUROPEAN PERMITS THIS UNDERCUTTING OF THE ESTABLISHED H5 RIDGE
ON TUESDAY AND IS SHOWING A MORE TRADITIONAL WARM FRONTAL FEATURES
IN THE OHIO VALLEY...ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL.
THIS FRONT IS VERY BROAD IN NATURE AND FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AS TO
IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO HELP FORCE SHOWERS IN A
SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...UNDERNEATH THE AXIS OF
THE H5 RIDGE.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS SHOWING A BROADENING OF THE H5 RIDGE AS IT MOVES
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. AM CONTINUING THE INCREASED
POPS EXPECTING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AFTER
MONDAY BUT INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEK.

EXPECT A GRADUAL WARM UP EACH DAY...STARTING IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SUNDAY...WARMING TO NEAR 80/LOW 80S BY WED...POSSIBLY
REACHING MID 80S BY THURSDAY. PM LOWS WILL BE COMFORTABLY COOL
AROUND 50 MON MORNING UNDER A DRY AIRMASS AND THEN WARM PAST THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS TO REACH MID 60S BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR WORK IN FROM THE NORTH AND CLOUDS MOVE OUT AROUND
13Z. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST OVER 2O KNOTS THROUGH THE
DAY IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE HIGH CENTER. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AFTER 00Z SATURDAY AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN ON A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO