000
FXUS61 KILN 251741
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
141 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
FOR MOST OF THIS WEEKEND PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES.
THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION BY MEMORIAL DAY...WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH FULL SUN...THE MORNING ILN SOUNDING IS
SUPPORTING A HIGH AROUND 70 DEGREES. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF
OCCASIONAL CLOUDS AND WEAK CAA TO NEUTRAL LOW LEVEL ADVECTION
SHOULD TEMPER THIS SOMEWHAT. GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
S/W ROUNDING UPSTREAM MID LEVEL RIDGE TO DIVE SE THRU LOWER OHIO
VALLEY THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH WAA WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACRS THE SW. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 40 NE TO THE UPPER 40S SW WHERE CLOUDS WILL
BE THICKEST.

WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS INTO THE FAR SW SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE MOST OF THE DAY DRY AND
ONLY CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWER ACRS THE FAR SW LATE
IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST.

NEXT DISTURBANCE TO DROP SE ACRS OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.
NUMERICAL MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE. ECMWF HAS
BEEN MOST CONSISTENT TAKING MCS INTO OHIO AHEAD OF WARM FRONT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD A DRIER SOLN AND NAM
TAKES THIS COMPLEX THRU ILNS NW AHD OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT ON
MONDAY. SREF MEAN ALLOWS PRECIP CHANCES TO INCREASE ACRS THE
ENTIRE FA MONDAY WITH THE BEST THREAT ACRS THE WEST. WILL TREND
FCST TOWARD A BLENDED SOLN WEIGHTED TOWARD THE SREF MEAN/ECMWF WITH
POPS INCREASING EARLY ON MONDAY BUT WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE
CATEGORY AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
PIVOT THRU THE NW MONDAY AHD OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY RANGING FROM THE
UPR 60S NW TO THE MID/UPR 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIFT NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FEATURE
WILL PREVAIL BUT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIDE VARIATION ON WHEN
THESE START.

ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15 DEG WARMER THAN MONDAY AS
FLOW TURNS SOUTH AND WARMER AIR OF A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL NATURE GETS
PULLED IN. WITH THE WARMER AIR IS HIGHER DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL
NATURALLY BUMP NIGHTTIME LOWS SIGNIFICANTLY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A MEAN BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

ASIDE FROM RAIN WITH THE FROPA EARLY IN THE FORECAST...THINGS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THEIR
TIMING...PLACEMENT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...PCPN
FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE MOISTURE DOES REMAIN IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS SO THINK ANY PCPN WOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. EITHER WAY...WOULD EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR
AND WILL COVER PCPN THREAT WITH JUST A VCSH GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...JGL