000
FXUS61 KILN 190158
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
958 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT...ALLOWING
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER ALONG
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JUNE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER AND IS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. BASED ON RECENT OBS...COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 71 CORRIDOR AND HEADING SOUTHWARD. NORTH OF THE
FRONT WINDS HAVE INCREASED OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND HAVE
BEEN GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH THIS EVENING. THE TREND SHOULD BE FOR
THESE WINDS TO SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH AS WE GO INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS COULD OCCUR SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER LATE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION
AND INTERACTS WITH THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE OR WILL
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE NORMALS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER...SHELTERED
LOCATIONS OF OUR NORTH AND EAST...TO NEAR 60 SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL CONUS AND WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS TROUGHING EXITS THE EAST COAST.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE AN EASTWARD DRIFT ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING RETURN
FLOW TO BEGIN AND TEMPERATURES TO RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE DURING
THE DAY.

UPPER HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE
THAT WAS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SLIDES EASTWARD. COMPUTER
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PATTERN WILL TAKE ON A
DECIDEDLY SUMMERLIKE LOOK WITH A BERMUDA HIGH SETTING UP (ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MINOR DETAILS). JET STREAM WILL
STAY TO OUR NORTH WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS. WHILE DIFFERING IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT...SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND/OR MCS POTENTIALLY AFFECTING
PART OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH
THE RIDGE AND SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTION...BUT CARRIED A 20-30 POP
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHETHER STORMS ULTIMATELY END UP DEVELOPING OR
ARE ADVECTED IN. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT OF
A BUILDING RIDGE TO LIMIT POPS TO 20...WITH A FEW PULSE-TYPE STORMS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DEPENDING ON HOW STRONGLY CAPPED WE ARE. BY
TUESDAY...OUR HEIGHTS BEGIN LOWERING AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER
THE ROCKIES. IN ADDITION...IT SEEMS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE ON
THE INCREASE. THEREFORE BROUGHT POPS BACK UP TO 30 FOR EVERYONE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE ENTIRE SATURDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD...THE THERMAL PROFILE DOES
NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY. HIGHS WILL BE 85-90...LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S...WITH FAIRLY MUGGY DEW POINTS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE SAGGING SOUTH OF OUR
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. MOST ACTIVITY IS NOW CONFINED SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER...THEREFORE ONLY KEPT MENTION OF VCTS AT KCVG/KLUK
THROUGH 01Z. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT OF AROUND 5 TO
10 KT SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST DEVELOPMENT AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
KLUK. AT KLUK...LIGHTER FLOW IN THE RIVER VALLEY COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE LATE TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
     EXPECT SCATTERED CU WITH NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS UNDER 10
KT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...LATTO