000
FXUS61 KILN 240200
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1000 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA
OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
HOWEVER EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE NEAR TERM HOWEVER AS DRY AIR BEGINS
TO WORK INTO THE AREA EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO BEGIN TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE FA. HOW FAST THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP DOWN INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL BATTLE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT TO
DECIDE HOW MUCH FAIR WEATHER CU WILL DEVELOP. LOOKS LIKE THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE AFTERNOON.

THE FA WILL BE UNDER FULL CONTROL OF THE HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
CLEAR SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS. EAST OF COLUMBUS...COULD SEE SOME
FROST DEVELOP...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION IN THE HWO.

BY SATURDAY...THE REGION BEGINS TO FEEL THE AFFECTS A ENERGY
RIDING OVER TOP OF THE H5 RIDGE TO THE WEST. SOME MODELS BRING A
STRIP OF PCPN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE SW PART
OF THE FA. AT LOWER LEVELS HOWEVER THE HIGH IS STILL IN CONTROL
AND THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS DRY. SO DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW.

THE ENERGY DROPS TO THE SE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...LESSENING THE
CHANCE OF PCPN IN THE SW.

TOMORROW WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. AS
MENTIONED BEFORE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL RAPIDLY. EAST OF COLUMBUS TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. ELSEWHERE SHOULD
SEE LOWER 40S. HIGHS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND FOR SATURDAY PUSHING
BACK INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL NOSE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND KEEP A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRYING SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PREVAIL WITH GENERAL
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE OHIO VALLEY. GFS IS SHOWING A S/W UNDERCUTTING
H5 RIDGE AND BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION MONDAY. THIS APPEARS
TO BE CONSISTENT FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST BUT THE EUROPEAN IS ALSO
CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING THIS FEATURE MUCH FURTHER SOUTHWEST AS AN
ELEVATED CONVERGENT BAND AT THIS TIME.

THE EUROPEAN PERMITS THIS UNDERCUTTING OF THE ESTABLISHED H5 RIDGE
ON TUESDAY AND IS SHOWING A MORE TRADITIONAL WARM FRONTAL FEATURES
IN THE OHIO VALLEY...ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE GFS AND CANADIEN MODEL.
THIS FRONT IS VERY BROAD IN NATURE AND FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AS TO
IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO HELP FORCE SHOWERS IN A
SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...UNDERNEATH THE AXIS OF
THE H5 RIDGE.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS SHOWING A BROADENING OF THE H5 RIDGE AS IT MOVES
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. AM CONTINUING THE INCREASED
POPS EXPECTING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AFTER
MONDAY BUT INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEK.

EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMUP EACH DAY...STARTING IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SUNDAY...WARMING TO NEAR 80/LOW 80S BY WED...POSSIBLY
REACHING MID 80S BY THURSDAY. PM LOWS WILL BE COMFORTABLY COOL
AROUND 50 MON MORNING UNDER A DRY AIRMASS AND THEN WARM PAST THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS TO REACH MID 60S BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND THE TAF SITES WILL TAPER OFF AND MOVE OUT
OF THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT HOUR. WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TAF SITES OFF AN ON FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THE TAF PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
REDUCED VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KCMH AND KLCK AFTER THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR A BRIEF TIME BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR VSBYS. CIGS WILL
START OUT RANGING FROM VFR TO MVFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES HOWEVER
EXPECT ALL AREA SITES TO HAVE MVFR CIGS FOR SEVERAL HOURS TONIGHT.
DRY AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AND SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR. SOME WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...NOVAK