982
FXUS64 KAMA 122340 AAA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
640 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

.SHORT TERM...

A weather system is currently passing over the southern plains
today generating a surface low in the panhandles as it does so.
This system has pushed ample moisture across the panhandles for
the last few days leading to the extensive cloud cover and earlier
rain showers and thunderstorms. This system is causing increasing
instability with its passage with a corridor of 500 to 1800 CAPE.
This will allow further rain showers and thunderstorms to flair up
this afternoon starting in the central and northern panhandles.
Further rain showers and thunderstorms are then likely to form in
the western panhandles as the low center passes through. All this
activity will move eastward as both the system and the instability
it is causing moves east. This system is causing some shear across
the panhandles during its passage which will allow for some of the
storms to organize and potentially become strong to severe. The
primary threat from any of these strong to severe storms remains
large hail and damaging winds. The chance for tornados is
extremely low but a landspout cannot be fully ruled out as the
upper low passes across the region. The chance for any strong to
severe storm will strongly depend on how much heating will occur
in the breaks of clouds. The more clearings and the longer
duration of heating the higher the chance that a strong to severe
storm will be. Conversely if the current cloud cover stick around
longer then chance for a severe, much less any thunderstorms,
becomes less. Rainfall accumulations from the rain showers and
thunderstorms could be over an inch. However this will take either
multiple showers and thunderstorms passing over the same area. It
is almost as likely a spot will be missed by all the rain showers
and thunderstorms and see no further accumulations of rain from
this system. The passage of the surface low will act as a weak
cold front shunting the bulk of the moisture to the east this
evening. This will cause most of the rain showers and
thunderstorms to end across the panhandles. There could still be a
few light showers under the upper low mainly in the northern
panhandles this evening to overnight during its passage.

Monday will see the weather system still impacting the panhandles
this time with some wrap around moisture. While low the moisture
should prove sufficient to cause further isolated rain showers
and thunderstorms. These have the best chance of occurring in the
northern TX panhandle and OK panhandle as the moisture will be
higher there. The rest of the TX panhandles will have a very low
chance of seeing any further rainfall. Even areas that see more
rain are unlikely to see much accumulation as these will be light
rain showers. Winds will stay out of the north through the day and
become gusty as the gradient from the weather system becomes
tighter. Once the system pushes further eastward late in the day
the winds will weaken again and become fairly light.

SH

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Ridging looks to be in control on Tuesday, resulting in
temperatures peaking in the 80s to near 90 in some spots.
Southerly winds will bring some moisture back to the area through
the afternoon and evening hours, which could help a stray storm
or two develop when a few models hint a potential impulse impedes
the ridge. This is a low confidence scenario though, as models are
quite split on the existence of this hypothetical impulse.
Therefore, POPs remain <20% on Tuesday.

Models agree active weather promptly returns to the Panhandles Wed-
Thu, when showers and storms could be in play once again. The
overall setup for storms looks rather messy, as a stalling cold
front and upper level shortwave situate atop the Panhandles. The
position of this front is still a point of contingency amongst
guidance, as well as quality of moisture return and deep layer
shear. If conditions culminate favorably though and more
aggressive guidance comes to fruition, strong to severe storms
with a wind and hail threat would be possible. As the
aforementioned front gradually slides south, the parent trough
situated over the southwest CONUS will translate eastward towards
the Plains by Thursday, providing lift for additional showers and
embedded storms. Anomalously high PWATs around 0.75-1.25" should
exist throughout this time frame, supporting more chances at
beneficial spring rains through Thursday night, even if the
thunderstorm threat doesn`t pan out. There`s still ample time for
this outlook to trend one way or the other, so please check back
for updates as we get closer.

We transition back to benign weather Friday as the system exits
and dry air surges in. After cooler temps on Thursday in the wake
of the front and under the influence of heavy cloud cover/rain,
above average temperature come right on back by the weekend.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the late
evening. MVFR conditions and brief IFR conditions will be found
with this activity. Skies are expected to become VFR behind the
showers and storms as a cold front pushes them to the southeast.
Northwest to north winds will get gusty behind this cold front
overnight, and then they will pick up more by mid to late morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                50  78  47  87 /  20  10   0  10
Beaver OK                  50  77  45  85 /  60  20   0   0
Boise City OK              47  75  45  84 /  50  10   0  10
Borger TX                  53  81  48  90 /  40  10   0  10
Boys Ranch TX              49  81  47  90 /  20  10   0  10
Canyon TX                  49  79  47  87 /  20  10   0   0
Clarendon TX               52  78  51  84 /  30  10   0   0
Dalhart TX                 46  77  43  86 /  50  10   0  10
Guymon OK                  48  77  44  86 /  50  10   0  10
Hereford TX                49  81  47  89 /  10  10   0   0
Lipscomb TX                50  76  47  84 /  70  20   0   0
Pampa TX                   50  77  48  85 /  40  10   0   0
Shamrock TX                53  78  49  84 /  60  10   0   0
Wellington TX              54  79  51  85 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...15