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000
FXUS61 KCLE 191103
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
703 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front exits to the east today. A secondary cold front
moves through early Saturday. High pressure builds in Saturday
afternoon through Monday, with low pressure moving out of the
central U.S. and into the Great Lakes on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Batch of dissipating convection ahead of a cold front still
bringing some rain showers to eastern OH and western PA as we
come up on 7 AM. Removed thunder from the forecast this morning
as this activity has finally out-ran the little bubble of
elevated instability fueling it through the day. Cold front
cross Northwest OH as we approach 7 AM and will continue east
through about noon. May see some sprinkles/brief showers develop
along the front itself this morning, especially farther east,
though not expecting any additional thunder or much QPF. Good
dry punch behind the front so any rain chances will be swept out
with the cold front. Mainly cloudy this morning, including a
period of lower stratus along and just behind the front, though
we should see sunshine return from northwest to southeast later
this morning through this afternoon as that drier air works in.

Generally quiet conditions are expected tonight and Saturday. A
weak shortwave will zip through the upper Ohio Valley tonight
and will likely bring a mid-level cloud deck to our southern/
southeastern counties. The low-levels are expected to be too dry
for any precip. A secondary cold front pushes through Saturday
morning as a rather potent shortwave over the Great Lakes
glances the region. Do have a brief slight chance for showers
mentioned in Northwest PA Saturday morning-midday for this
feature, though in general the low-level airmass looks fairly
dry. Otherwise, as temperatures aloft cool diurnal cumulus will
likely spread back in Saturday afternoon. Not impossible we get
a sprinkle or brief shower somewhere out of the cumulus as some
models depict, though the airmass is dry and most models don`t
have measurable QPF so kept POPs out for now.

Temperatures will hold steady or fall a bit this morning behind
the cold front and then rebound into the mid 50s to near 60
behind the front. Places like Akron/Canton, Youngstown and Erie/
Meadville may actually just see a high in the upper 50s/lower
60s ahead of the front. Lows tonight in the upper 30s/lower 40s.
Highs on Saturday will be a bit chilly, generally in the upper
40s to lower 50s. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 MPH are expected
Saturday morning and early afternoon out of the west-northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build east across the Ohio Valley Sunday through
Monday, pushing east Monday night. The main concern during this time
will be for frost as low temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s
both nights. Saturday night may have partial cloud cover with the
cumulus field dissipating while some high cloud spreads overhead.
Regardless, think there will be windows of clearing and enough
time for areas of frost to develop. Sunday night does look more
favorable for a widespread frost as temperatures will once
again be in the low to mid 30s with mostly clear skies and light
winds, especially from north Central Ohio to Northwest Pennsylvania.
Frost will be patchy if at all closer to Lake Erie. Daytime highs
will be in the 50s on Sunday then rebound to 60 or better across the
western half of the forecast area on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The active northwest flow pattern continues into next week with
another trough deepening as it crosses the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes Region on Tuesday. Surface low pressure will cross lower
Michigan and then pass north of the eastern Great Lakes. The
00Z Canadian and ECMWF are both a little slower and farther
north than the GFS on Tuesday which seems reasonable as the trough
starts to deepen to the northwest. Did slow pops down slightly on
Tuesday, with best chances of showers and thunderstorms focused on
Tuesday night. Highs on Tuesday should reach the low to mid 60s
ahead of the system, then be noticeably cooler for Wednesday. There
is a somewhat high amount of spread among the models with respect to
the cooler 850mb temperatures behind the front on Wednesday. Trended
highs down slightly and expect some of the eastern sites may not
make it out of the 40s. Temperatures will likely trend at least
slightly warmer for Thursday but will depend on how fast the upper
trough departs to the east.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
A cold front has just crossed TOL and FDY as of 11z and will
continue east, clearing ERI by 16-17z. A batch of showers from
CLE-MFD points east will exit through the morning with few
restrictions. No lightning remains with this activity. Otherwise,
sprinkles or light showers will accompany the front itself and
may briefly cause vsby restrictions. Bigger concern will be
ceilings, falling to IFR along and just behind the front as
observed at TOL and FDY. A good dry punch moves in from the west
into this afternoon which should cause IFR ceilings to be
fairly brief. Have IFR in the TAF at all sites but YNG, as they
may be a bit warmer and more mixed by the time the front clears
there. Confidence isn`t exceptionally high at CLE and ERI either
though still feel IFR is more likely than not, so maintained it
in the TAF briefly. Any sites that don`t drop to IFR with the
front will drop to low MVFR. All improve back to VFR by mid-
afternoon and then remain VFR tonight.

Light south-southeast winds at 5 to 10 knots ahead of the front
switch to a more westerly direction behind the cold front,
increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts 20 to 25 knots behind
the front. Winds will remain generally westerly tonight and
settle to less than 10 knots with no gusts around sunset.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will track northeast across Lake Erie this morning with
west northwest winds of 15-20 knots behind the front this morning,
backing to more southwesterly this afternoon. Waves in the nearshore
waters east of the Islands build to 2 to 4 feet with a few 5 footers
possible for a brief window. A secondary cold front will cross the
lake on Saturday bringing a more persistent west northwest wind of
15-25 knots and waves building to 3 to 6 feet on the east half of
the lake. Small Craft Advisories will be needed for most of the day
on Saturday. Beyond that, high pressure will build into the Ohio
Valley Sunday through Monday. Winds will decrease from west to
east on Sunday but some choppiness will continue on the east
half of the lake. Waves should be 1 foot or less on Monday. Another
low pressure system will cross Lake Erie bringing a chance of
showers and thunderstorms along with a cold front late Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Sullivan
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...KEC