Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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185 FXUS63 KDVN 080041 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 741 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a marginal or level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms on Wednesday. - An active pattern continues through early next week with chances of showers and storms every 24 to 36 hours. - Below normal temperatures are expected Thursday through Saturday with a warming trend starting early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 733 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Convection in central Iowa is being supported by an upper level disturbance in northwest Iowa and another across southern Nebraska. Trends with the very short term models suggest that the central Iowa convection will maintain through much of the evening before slowly dissipating. Based on reports from central Iowa, the convection will still be capable of producing isolated wind gusts of 40-50 mph all the way to the Mississippi River before the convection dissipates. The forecast is currently being updated to reflect this scenario. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois, and far northeast Missouri sit in the clear air ahead of a cold front that will move across the area this afternoon. A prefrontal wind shift to the southwest is near the Mississippi River. Temperatures through 1 PM are in the mid to upper 60s. Dewpoints are in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The cold front currently moving across the area is forecast to move to our south and east tonight before stalling across southern Missouri as the front becomes parallel to the flow aloft. Models show a subtle shortwave ridge that will move across the area tonight. A few showers and storms are possible east of the river late this afternoon into the early evening. Skies will remain clear overnight with light winds. Low temperatures tonight are forecast to be in the lower to mid 50s. On Wednesday, a closed 500 MB low is forecast o rotate into western Iowa as a surface low rides along the old cold frontal boundary. There is disagreement between the synoptic models about how far north the surface low tracks and how far north the warmer air and instability come. Forecasting soundings across the area show the best shear and instability is in the lower part of the atmosphere looking like the potential for low topped convection especially south of a Fairfield to Galesburg line. A marginal risk of severe storms is in place for the entire area. The window for the risk is narrow and looks to be during the late morning into the early afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats but there is also the threat for a tornado or two if winds at the surface are backed. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Broad troughing continues across the area through the day on Thursday with scattered showers and storms possible through the day. After Thursday, the flow aloft becomes more northwesterly with a series of ridges and troughs moving across the Upper Midwest. This results in chances of showers and storms every 24 hours or so. High temperatures are forecast to be below normal Thursday through Saturday before a general warming trend begins next week. .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 A cold front is forecast to move eastward across the eastern Iowa TAF sites early this afternoon. Conditions will quickly improve to VFR behind the front as MVFR ceilings clear. Showers and storms may develop in the vicinity of KBRL and KMLI through 21 UTC before the threat shifts to the east of the area. Southwesterly winds are forecast to diminish after 00 UTC. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 617 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Convection associated with the cold front will push through northern Illinois through 06z/08. Very short term models take the convection in central Iowa into eastern Iowa by 06z/08 before dissipating. No TSRA/SHRA were included in the 00z TAFs as the current probability of a TAF site being impacted is 10 percent at best. Otherwise expect VFR conditions. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ UPDATE...08 SHORT TERM...Cousins LONG TERM...Cousins AVIATION...08