764
FXUS65 KFGZ 050549
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1049 PM MST Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Winds will continue to increase overnight, peaking on
Sunday, and remaining gusty through much of the week. Expect
isolated showers on Sunday from Flagstaff northward. Temperatures
will cool slightly on Sunday but warm back up through midweek.
Another trough will keep temperatures cool for the second half of
the week but conditions will remain dry.

&&

.UPDATE...An anomalously deep and cold system is still on track
to work its way through the Intermountain West. The brunt of its
impacts will remain to our north, but high winds, cooler
temperatures, and even a chance at rain and snow are forecast for
our CWA tomorrow. Confidence in the potential for rain and very
high elevation snow from Flagstaff northward is increasing. Stay
tuned for updates to the precipitation forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /455 PM MST/...Look for a strong but mainly dry
low pressure system to swing across Arizona tonight and on
Sunday. The primary impact of this system will be very strong
winds. Winds will strengthen overnight across much of northern
Arizona as the low approaches. Before midnight, mainly along and
northwest of a line extending from Prescott to Flagstaff to Page,
southwest winds in the 20 to 30 mph are forecast. Gusts to near 50
mph are possible over and to the northeast of higher terrain
features. After midnight, similar winds spread eastward to the New
Mexico border. During the day Sunday stronger winds really kick
in with widespread sustained southwest winds at 30 to 40 mph
gusting to over 60 mph, primarily from the Mogollon Rim northward
where a High Wind Warning has been issued. Further south winds
will gust to around 40 mph with a Wind Advisory for the higher
elevation locations of Yavapai County. The low will bring with it
dynamics for upward motion and draw in limited moisture for a
slight chance of showers from about Flagstaff northwestward Sunday
afternoon and evening. Cooler on Sunday with the passing low and
associated cold front.

For Monday through Saturday...The current low exits the state on
Monday to be replaced by another dry and weaker low on Tuesday.
As a result, pressure gradients will remain elevated for afternoon
winds at 15 to 25 mph gusting to 35 mph on Monday then strengthen
to 20 to 30 mph gusting to 45 mph on Tuesday with the passing
low. Other than turning a bit cooler on Wednesday behind the low
temperatures will climb to near normal with northwest to west
winds as 10 to 20 mph.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 05/06Z through Monday 06/06Z...Mainly VFR
conditions and high winds. By Sunday afternoon, southwest winds
sustained at 20 to 35 knots will gust 35 to 50 knots. Areas of
blowing dust may reduce visibility at KINW, KSJN, and KRQE. Rain
and snow showers are possible along and north of a KCMR-KFLG-KRQE
line Sunday afternoon and evening. Winds will weaken after 00Z and
conditions will clear west to east.

OUTLOOK...Monday 06/06Z through Wednesday 08/06Z...Widespread VFR
conditions. On Monday, expect west winds 10 to 20 knots with
gusts of 20 to 30 knots. On Tuesday, expect west winds 15 to 25
knots, with gusts of 25 to 35 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Monday...Southwest winds gusting 20
to 35 mph will continue tonight. Wind gusts will dramatically
increase Sunday morning to 40 to 55 mph, with favored downsloping
areas gusting to 65 mph. Minimum RH on Sunday will be 10 to 20%
across far eastern Arizona, leading to Red Flag conditions in Apache
County. Rain and snow showers are possible in the high terrain along
and north of I-40 Sunday afternoon and evening. Weaker west winds
are forecast on Monday, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph.

Tuesday through Thursday...West winds will remain elevated on
Tuesday with widespread gusts of 25 to 35 mph. Weaker winds from the
northwest are forecast Wednesday and Thursday. Expect afternoon
minimum RH values of 10 to 20%, and overnight maximum RH values of
35 to 55%. No precipitation is expected through the period.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 6 AM MST /7 AM MDT/ to 9 PM MST /10 PM
MDT/ Sunday for AZZ004>007-009>017-039-040.

Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM MST Sunday for AZZ008.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MST Sunday for AZZ114.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Benji/McCollum
AVIATION...Benji
FIRE WEATHER...Benji/BAK

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff