Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 291123
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
623 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Front moving through today will bring cooler temperatures
  north, but temperatures will remain warmer further south
  across north central Kansas.

- Next chances for precipitation will be Saturday night into
  Sunday morning, and again Sunday afternoon into Monday. There
  may be a few thunderstorms Sunday/Monday.

- Forecast models indicate a possible warming trend the latter
  half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024

Today...
A cold front moving across the region today will bring a pretty
significant spread in temperatures. Highs today will range from
the mid 50s north to the 70s south. Behind the front, winds will
become northwesterly and breezy this morning, then northerly
this afternoon. Gusts will be around 25 to 30 mph behind the
front. Overnight lows tonight will fall to around freezing, give
or take a couple of degrees.

Saturday...
Expect conditions to be dry most of the day with upper level
ridging developing over the area, but generally a bit cooler
than today. High temperatures will range from the low 50s north
to the low 60s south. A shortwave trough will move across the
forecast area later in the day, bringing a chance of rain
showers to portions of the forecast area. Currently we expect
the best chances for rain to remain mostly to the north, but
there is at least a slight (15%-29% chance) across much of south
central Nebraska, while we currently expect north central
Kansas to remain dry. Any showers we do get will likely move out
of the area by early to mid- Sunday morning. Overnight lows
will be a little warmer but still mainly in the 30s.

Sunday...
After any lingering showers depart in the morning, temperatures
will again be pretty significantly different due to a
combination of a trough extending through the northern and
central Plains and another area of low pressure and front
extending from eastern Colorado across Kansas. With easterly to
northeasterly winds across our forecast area, highs should
remain cooler for the most part, especially across our Nebraska
counties. High temperatures are expected to range from the upper
40s to mid 60s across south central Nebraska, and in the 60s
and 70s across north central Kansas. Sunday evening into Monday
morning will likely be the best chance for precipitation over
the next 7 days. This should mainly be rain showers, but there
may well be enough instability to support a few mainly non-
severe thunderstorms, most likely across the eastern half or so
of the forecast area.

Monday and Tuesday...
Forecast models do not agree on how widespread precipitation
from this system will be due to disparities in how far north or
south the surface low will be. Generally though, conditions
are expected to become drier Tuesday. There is a chance of a
rain- snow mix across portions of south central Nebraska as
temperatures drop to or just below freezing Monday morning, but
this is still looking like mainly a rain event. Highs will range
from the mid-40s to low 60s Monday (cooler north and warmer
south) and be in the 50s across the entire area Tuesday.

Heading into the latter half of next week, broad upper level
ridging is expected to develop over much of the western and
central United States, bringing a drier and warmer trend to the
forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 614 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will
start out light and generally easterly to southeasterly, but
will increase to around 10 mph this morning and become
northwesterly as a cold front moves through. Behind the front
this afternoon, winds will become northerly and increase
further, with sustained winds of 10-15 mph and gusts of around
25 mph. Winds will diminish around sunset. Expect SCT to BKN
clouds throughout the period, mostly at around 20 kft AGL.
Toward the end of the period Saturday morning, a lower mid-level
cloud deck at about 12-15 kft AGL will move across the area.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...Hickford


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