074
FXUS63 KICT 091956
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
256 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet with seasonal temperatures today through Saturday

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return Saturday night into
  next week -- best chances Sunday into Monday

- Severe weather is not expected over the next 7 days

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

As of 3 PM, broad southwesterly  midlevel flow was present across the
central and southern Plains. The core of the midlevel jet remains
collocated with the surface trough axis across central TX. Benign
weather is expected over the next 24-48 hours across the state.
Temperatures will remain seasonal for early to mid-May standards in
the 70s to near 80. The next chance (60-80%) for showers and
thunderstorms arrives late Saturday through Sunday and into Monday
as a decaying midlevel low slowly moves across the central Plains.
PW values are forecast to increase near 1" by Sunday morning, which
should support moderate rain at times. Latest NBM probabilities
reveal the entire forecast area has a greater than 50% chance for
receiving at least 0.50" from Sunday through Monday.

Midlevel ridging will slide into the central US Tuesday, briefly
ending rain chances. The next midlevel shortwave trough approaches
the area Wednesday into Thursday, bringing rain chances back to the
area. Again, an overlap of shear and instability appears unlikely
which should keep the severe thunderstorm potential low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

VFR conditions will prevail thru the forecast valid period along
with northerly component surface winds.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...KED