Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
971 FXUS62 KMLB 071950 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 350 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE... ...Near Record Temperatures Forecast Wednesday through Friday... ...Sensitive Fire Weather Conditions Continue and Increase Late Week... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 234 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024 Currently-Tonight... High pressure over the western Atlantic continues to influence the region. Winds have backed southeast near the coast with the east coast sea breeze currently pushing inland across western Volusia, western Brevard, as well as the western Treasure Coast. So far radar has stayed quiet with only isolated showers over the offshore local Atlantic waters. GOES-16 water vapor imagery shows substantial dry air in the mid to upper levels. Rain chances this evening are minimal with mostly dry conditions forecast through this evening. However, isolated showers and a few lighting strikes are possible (PoPs ~20-30%) across the far interior where the east coast sea breeze is expected to collide with the west coast sea breeze late this afternoon and early evening. Skies will become mostly clear overnight with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s and light southerly winds. Wednesday... The pattern will remain similar Wednesday, although drier air is expected in the mid to upper levels with the mid level ridge expected to continue to build over the Gulf of Mexico and the state of Florida. South winds are forecast to back southeast into the afternoon at 10-15mph with the east coast sea breeze pushing inland. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s along the coast and the mid 90s across the interior are forecast with heat index values in the mid 90s to low 100s under mostly sunny to partly sunny skies. && Wed Night-Thu Night...Mid-level ridging begins to flatten out across the FL peninsula with mainly zonal flow thru the period. At the surface, weak high pressure ridging remains southward with center of the high pushing further seaward. SSE flow will veer SSW during the night/morning periods, but back to southeast during the day along the immediate coast on Thu. The ECSB will not venture very far inland on Thu due to the deeper/stronger SW flow in the low-levels. This will allow for temperatures to heat up during the day with L90s near the coast and M-U90s W of I-95. These numbers will be very close to record highs at most locations. Overnight lows Wed/Thu nights in the U60s to L70s with M70s not out of the question in a few spots. Continue to keep this period dry, though some models do suggest ISOLD convection Wed evening surrounding the sea breeze collision, though the atmosphere remains fairly dry. Fri-Tue...Previous Modified...Ridging aloft remains flattened by a substantial mid-upper level trough digging across the central and eastern CONUS, with flow over Florida continuing generally zonal. A weakening cold front drops into Florida late Fri into Sat, shunting high pressure over the Atlantic further out to sea, and bringing small chances for rain. However, rain won`t come before one more very hot day Fri with highs in the 90s, even along the barrier islands, as SWRLY flow ahead of the front becomes breezy and very gusty. This will heighten fire sensitivity across ECFL. Some disagreement in moisture placement along the front between models continues, and thus decreasing confidence in rain chances, with the GFS sweeping the highest moisture north of Florida, and the ECM bringing it further southward. On Fri going with PoPs 20pct or less Melbourne southward and 30-50pct towards northern Lake/Volusia counties. The front stalls to the south, keeping 20-40pct rain chances in the forecast on Sat (favoring south) and 20-25pct on Sun Vero Beach southward. The previous front is poised to retreat back northward across central FL as early as Sun night/Mon (GFS) with energy/moisture riding along it, further increasing rain chances through much of next week. Both the GFS/ECM keep a boundary nearby into next week with a supply of deeper moisture and energy aloft that would aid in this potential wetter forecast. This far out there remains model disagreement in timing, strength, and position of various features/parameters - so fingers crossed! Temperatures slowly work their way back closer towards normal across most of ECFL this weekend into early next week, but remain above normal across the south. Overnight lows in the 70s ease back down into the 60s for most. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 234 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024 VFR conditions are forecast with high pressure over the western continuing to influence the Southeast US. South to Southeast winds at 5-12kts will become light overnight, then back southeast into the afternoon Wednesday at 5-10kts. Isolated showers are possible through this evening with VCSH mentioned at KLEE, KMCO, KISM, KSFB this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 234 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024 Currently-Wednesday... Favorable boating conditions are expected with high pressure over the western Atlantic. South-southeast winds at 10 to 15kts are forecast with seas expected to build to 2-3ft with up to 4 ft into late Wednesday afternoon. Wed Night-Sat...High pressure ridge axis will remain south of the local waters thru the period. A weakening frontal boundary will slide southward across the waters Fri night into Sat, eventually stalling across south FL. This will increase shower and ISOLD lightning storm activity from north to south. With an increasing offshore flow ahead of the boundary the sea breeze will be delayed Thu/Fri and only barely move inland along the Space/Treasure coasts (if at all). Generally S/SSE winds during the day Thu/Fri over the local waters with offshore flow returning each night/morning. Winds become WRLY Fri night, then NRLY immediately behind it Sat morning - continuing to veer NERLY Sat aftn, finally ERLY Sat night. Wind speeds 10-15 kts Wed night could approach 15-20 kts offshore north of Sebastian Inlet, generally 10-15 kts during the day on Thu, then increasing late Thu aftn-evening to 15-20 kts, generally 10-15 kts during the day on Fri, becoming 15-20 kts again late Fri afternoon- night, finally diminishing to 8-12 kts on Sat as the pgrad relaxes. Initial seas 2-4 ft show little variability thru the period, but could increase slightly during periods of higher sustained winds and locally higher invof any stronger showers or ISOLD lightning storms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 234 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024 Currently-Wednesday... Fire sensitive conditions will continue into Wednesday with RH values forecast to drop into the mid 30s to low 40s Wednesday afternoon across the interior well west of I-95, in addition to, the mid 40s to mid 50s along the coast. Southwest winds will back south to southeast Wednesday near the coast at 10-15mph. Thu-Sun...Dry air and increasing temperatures will push afternoon min RHs inland west of I-95 down to 30-40pct Thu-Sun, with some daily variation as a weak cool front passes through late Fri into Sat, which then stalls to the south late Sat. SWRLY winds increase this late-week as the front approaches, becoming breezy/gusty by Fri (15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph). Will have to monitor for Red Flag conditions given the heightened sensitivity. The Significant Fire Potential will be HIGH both Thu/Fri. Slight rain and lightning chances return Fri onward despite the dry conditions, but greatest chances may be early-mid next week for any potential substantial relief. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 234 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024 Record high temperatures this week. DAB 8-May 94 1967 9-May 94 1978 10-May 94 2008 LEE 8-May 94 2009 9-May 96 2009 10-May 96 2009 SFB 8-May 95 2009 9-May 97 2009 10-May 98 2009 MCO 8-May 98 1915 9-May 98 1915 10-May 98 1916 MLB 8-May 93 1975 9-May 94 1978 10-May 95 1978 VRB 8-May 92 2006 9-May 93 1977 10-May 95 1976 FPR 8-May 94 1967 9-May 95 1967 10-May 96 2008 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 70 92 72 94 / 0 10 0 0 MCO 71 96 73 97 / 10 10 0 0 MLB 71 89 72 92 / 0 10 0 0 VRB 69 91 69 94 / 0 10 0 0 LEE 72 95 73 94 / 10 10 0 0 SFB 71 96 73 97 / 10 10 0 0 ORL 71 96 74 97 / 10 10 0 0 FPR 68 90 69 93 / 0 10 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fehling LONG TERM...Sedlock AVIATION...Fehling