036
FXUS64 KTSA 031933
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
233 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A relatively quiet evening is in store across the area after an
active week of weather for eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
A couple isolated terrain induced thunderstorms are possible
through the afternoon across parts of northwest Arkansas and far
eastern Oklahoma as diurnal heating acts on the moist airmass in
place. Any storms that do form could become strong to severe with
large hail and damaging wind gusts the main threat. Storms should
weaken with the loss of solar heating later this evening and give
way to a mild night over the region.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A complex of storms is expected to develop across Kansas this
evening and progress east southeastward overnight tonight. the
leading edge of this MCS will begin to nudge into parts of
northeast Oklahoma by early Saturday morning with some gusty winds
possible along the leading edge along with heavy rainfall.
Overall, the complex should be in a weakening state as it moves
through northeast Oklahoma throughout the rest of the morning
hours. Still locally heavy downpours will be possible with the
stronger cores with high moisture content over the region. The
rest of the day Saturday will see lower chances (20-40%) for some
lingering showers and storms in the wake of the decaying MCS and
whatever outflow boundaries are leftover from that.

Heading into Sunday, increasing chances for widespread showers and
storms are expected as a shortwave trough lifts northeastward out
of central Texas and tracks across eastern Oklahoma during the
day. The severe threat will remain low during this time, but
isolated severe potential will exists with the more persistent
updrafts. The main threat will be locally heavy rainfall on top of
already very saturated soils. Rainfall throughout the last week
has been in the 5 to 7 inch range for a good chunk of eastern
Oklahoma and parts of western Arkansas. Additional rainfall of 1
to 2 inches is likely for much of the area with locally higher
amounts quickly causing concern for flash flooding and flooding of
urban or low lying areas due to excessive runoff. It won`t take
much for flooding to occur, so have opted to issue a Flood Watch
for the entire forecast area given the saturated conditions and
already high rivers and streams.

The unsettled pattern will continue into next week as an upper low
ejects out into the Central to Northern Plains and meanders for
several days. This will allow for moderately strong westerly to
southwesterly flow aloft to develop over the Southern Plains and
last through much of the week. Concurrently, a surface cold front
will drop southeastward into Kansas and become stalled, while a
dryline extend southward into Oklahoma and Texas. These areas will
serve as the focus for daily shower and storm chances for much of
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The strong flow aloft
combined with a warm and moist boundary layer will support severe
potential with any storms that develop. Monday will be the first
day to watch in the period as the main upper trough swings into
the Plains. Best storm chances will exist across northern Oklahoma
closer to the large scale ascent as an expanding elevated mixed
layer (EML) spread over the Southern Plains likely capping
convection further south along the dryline. Still, a couple storms
will be possible along the dryline with all severe hazards
possible. Details will continue to come into better focus as
Monday gets closer. The surface front is progged to drop down into
eastern Oklahoma on Wednesday, which would enhance shower and
storm chances Wednesday afternoon as well. Again, all severe
hazards appear possible at this time. Everyday next week through
at least Thursday, looks like a day to watch as the environment
will be supportive of severe potential each day. Continue to
monitor the latest forecasts.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Low-level stratus continues to blanket portions of northeast OK
and northwest AR early this afternoon. However, latest visible
satellite trends show the clouds beginning to scatter and break
apart. Anticipate cloud bases to further lift and VFR to prevail
by 19-20z at all TAF sites, with low-moderate confidence on exact
timing. A few isolated showers/storms may develop later this
afternoon. However, removed the mention of SHRA/TSRA in TAFs
through the afternoon, with the precipitation probabilities too
low to include at this time. Low-level stratus will likely return
late tonight/early Saturday morning, especially across the AR
terminals. Another round of convection is expected to develop
north of the area and move northwest-to-southeast across the
region early Saturday morning, with scattered showers and
thunderstorms lingering through much of the morning Saturday.
Southeast winds will shift out of the north as a cold front moves
into the area late in the TAF period.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  79  60  73 /  30  70  60  80
FSM   64  82  65  76 /  10  40  50  90
MLC   66  81  63  75 /  10  50  70  90
BVO   61  76  55  72 /  40  60  50  80
FYV   61  80  60  74 /  10  50  50  90
BYV   61  80  60  72 /   0  50  40  80
MKO   64  78  62  72 /  20  60  60  90
MIO   61  77  58  71 /  20  70  40  80
F10   63  78  61  72 /  20  70  70  90
HHW   64  78  65  75 /  10  30  60  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for
     OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for
     ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...67