Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 132331
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
731 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm weather continues through late week. The next chance of
showers arrives Friday afternoon. Cooler weather returns early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...

Latest sfc analysis depicts high pressure centered over FL and
continuing to gradually move E. Temps as of 230 PM were in the low-
mid 70s with highs this afternoon a couple degrees warmer (mid-
upper 70s). Remaining very pleasant with light winds and low
humidity (min RH of 16-21% inland and 25-35% along the coast).
Scattered cirrus remains across N portions of the FA (still plenty
of sun filtering through) with sunny skies S. Any clouds clear out
this evening with clear skies tonight and lows in the 40s (lower 40s
W to upper 40s E).

Thu will be mostly sunny with some thin cirrus building in from the
W late. Well above normal temps expected with highs around 79-80F
for most. The humidity will also remain low with min RH values ~25%
inland. Cirrus slowly begin to build across N portions of the FA Thu
night with lows in the 50s as warm air advection ramps up.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...

High pressure remains centered off the Southeast coast Fri with
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Clouds increase through the day
Fri with SW winds becoming breezy in the afternoon (10-15 mph with
gusts 20-25 mph). While the forecast is for partly to mostly cloudy
skies Fri, it will likely be mainly cirrus with sun still filtering
through for most of the day. A weak cold front crosses the area Fri
night with scattered showers (and isolated storms) possible ahead of
the front Fri afternoon into Fri evening. Don`t expect much in the
way of accumulation though with the GEFS and EPS showing <0.25"
(highest accumulation across the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore).
As such, have kept PoPs chance instead of likely. Any showers move
offshore Fri night with lows in the upper 40s N to upper 50s S.

Clouds clear through the day Sat with highs in the lower 60s NE to
around 70F SW (most in the upper 60s) due to the lack of real cold
air advection behind the front. The front lifts back N late Sat into
Sat night with lows in the mid-upper 40s under partly clear
skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...

W/WSW winds increase to 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph Sun with
party sunny skies early becoming increasingly cloudy late as cirrus
move in from the W. Given downsloping, expect Sun to be warmer than
Sat in the upper 60s N to mid 70s S (most in the lower 70s).
Additionally, can`t rule out an isolated shower across the S/SE Sun
afternoon/evening (15-30% PoPs) as a shortwave passes to the S. Low
pressure moves into Quebec Sun into Mon, bringing a seasonally
strong cold front through the area Mon. This will usher in cooler
temps Mon-Wed with the coolest day on Tue. Additionally, can`t
completely rule out an isolated shower Mon afternoon across the NE
with the shortwave.

Highs in the mid 50s N to lower 60s S Mon, upper 40s to lower 50s N
to mid 50s S Tue, and lower 50s NE to around 60F SW Wed. Lows in the
upper 30s to lower 40s NW to the upper 40s SE Sun night with below
freezing temps possible across interior portions of the FA Mon and
Tue nights. Upper 20s are even possible for some locations. Still
chilly Wed night with lows in the lower 30s NW to the upper 30s to
around 40F SE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 00z TAF period as high
pressure remains in control. Skies will be mostly clear through
the period aside from FEW to occasionally SCT cirrus. Winds will
be light and variable overnight and through the morning,
becoming SW at 5-10kt tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook: VFR conditions with light winds are expected to last
into Fri with isolated to scattered showers (and perhaps
isolated storms) developing late Fri into Fri evening with the
next cold front crossing the region. SW winds increase to 10-15
kt with gusts 20-25 kt Fri afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...

Sfc high pressure was centered nrn FL this aftn with light winds, ~2
ft seas, and 1-2 ft waves.

Benign, sub-SCA conditions will prevail through Thu evening, as high
pressure will eventually slide well off the SE coast. S/SW/W winds
of 10 kt or less are expected during this time period. Increasing SW
winds are then expected ahead of a cold front going into the
weekend. At this time, the forecast shows SW winds increasing to 10-
20 kt late Thu night and Fri. A 3-6 hour period of low-end SCA gusts
is possible on the rivers/Currituck Sound and near the land/water
interface on the south/west side of the bay Fri aftn (when mixing
over land is maximized). Winds become W then NW or N Fri night into
Sat morning, with the frontal passage. Prevailing speeds are
forecast to remain a few knots below SCA criteria...although there
is the potential for a brief period of ~20 kt gusts between 4-11 AM
Saturday on the bay. Sub-SCA conditions are expected later Sat
through the rest of the weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...ERI


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