456
FXUS61 KALY 020543
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
143 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Outside of isolated showers north and east of Albany
tonight due to a passing disturbance, primarily dry conditions are
expected throughout the remainder of the work week. In fact,
precipitation chances don`t increase again until Saturday afternoon
into Sunday ahead of a frontal system. Dry weather will then return
for the beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
.Update...As of 1:25 AM EDT...Starting to see more
showers/thunderstorms across the north country at this time
ahead of a potent upper disturbance and associated surface low
that will be tracking north of our area overnight into this
morning. The cluster of thunderstorms in St. Lawrence County
should remain to our north, but a couple thundershowers that
developed over Lake Ontario could make it into northern Herkimer
County within the next hour or two if they hold together. Main
change with this update was to add a slight chance of thunder
tonight for portions of the Adirondacks based on trends with the
ongoing convection. Otherwise, just minor adjustments to
sky/temp/td/wind grids to better align with current obs.
Previous discussion below remains on track and goes into more
detail on the forecast through the remainder of the overnight
period...

.Previous...Forcing will continue to increase overnight for
areas mainly north of I-90, so expect periods of clouds to
continue, along with isolated to scattered showers, mainly after
midnight. A few showers could even extend as far south as the
I-90 corridor closer to daybreak.There is some mid level
instability/steeper lapse rates noted on upstream soundings, and
latest RAP13 suggests Showalter Indices dip as low as 0 to -2 C
for areas north of I-90 closer to daybreak, so can not
completely rule out a few rumbles of thunder.

Otherwise, low stratus continues to expand north and northwest
into southern Litchfield County, and will likely continue to
expand/develop northward overnight, possibly reaching portions
of the Capital Region, and likely across the Berkshires,
Litchfield Hills, mid Hudson Valley, southern Taconics, and
southern VT. Some patchy fog could develop where any breaks in
the clouds occur, but clouds are anticipated to increase across
much of the area tonight in response to the passage of the
disturbance. So, temperatures will fair on the mild side with
primarily 50s and some low 40s in higher terrain regions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upon the passage of the warm front and upper shortwave by
tomorrow morning, the parent low will be slow to move away from
our overhead, yielding some clouds lingering throughout the day
tomorrow, especially for western New England. A weak cold front
will swing through the region tomorrow afternoon as the low
drifts south and east, but a swift reinforcement of mid-level
dry air behind it will ensure another primarily dry day outside
of some scattered showers in the Upper-Hudson Valley and
portions of western New England. Anticipated breaks of sun,
especially in valley areas will allow temperatures to moderate
back to the 60s and 70s with some upper 50s expected above 1500
ft.

By tomorrow night, an upper-level ridge will be building in from
the west. The amplification of this ridge through Friday will
ensure a dry end of the work week with a continuation to above-
normal temperatures. Highs Friday will primarily be in the upper
60s with pockets of low 60s at higher elevations and near 70 in
valley areas after the cool boundary cools things off slightly.

The axis of the ridge will begin to shift eastward Friday night
into Saturday morning as a frontal system approaches from the
southwest. Showers look to begin as early as Saturday evening as
a surface low tracks towards into the Ohio Valley. Showers will
overspread the region from northwest to southeast as upper
troughing also pushes eastward into the region. Highs Saturday
will be similar to Friday with 60s expected across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level disturbance and surface boundary will be running into
the ridge in place for Saturday night into Sunday.  As a result, a
period of rain showers and cloudy conditions look to occur for Sat
night into Sunday (mainly early in the day, based on the latest
operational runs).  Have gone with fairly high POPs during this time
period for the entire area (high chance to likely).  Can`t rule out
some rumbles of thunder across southern areas too, although strong
storms are not expected due to limited instability and most of the
thunderstorm activity being elevated.  Temps will be in the 40s on
Sat night and only in the 50s on Sunday with plenty of clouds around.

Some clearing should occur by Monday with ridging building back into
the area for early next week.  As a result, skies should be partly
to mostly sunny for both Monday and Tuesday with valley highs in the
70s and overnight lows in the 40s and 50s.

Another chance for showers may return for Tuesday night into
Wednesday as the next system approaches from the west.  Temps will
continue to be fairly seasonable to somewhat above normal.  Because
of this, no frost/freeze issues are anticipated through the long
term period for locations where the growing season has already
begun.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06z Friday...Low pressure will track across northern
New England into this morning. An associated cold front will
push southeastward across the TAF sites by late this morning.
Until then, tricky forecast with regards to low stratus clouds
at KALB/KPOU/KPSF and possible fog at KGFL. Satellite imagery
shows stratus clouds very close to KPOU/KPSF at this time and
slowly expanding north/west. So will mention TEMPO for IFR cigs
until around 08z at these sites, then prevailing IFR cigs
through 12z. Lower confidence in low clouds making it to KALB,
so will just include a TEMPO for a few hours from 08z-10z. Mid
level clouds clearing at KGFL for the next few hours. If winds
go calm for any duration, fog development is likely with very
low dewpoint depression. So will mention a TEMPO for IFR
conditions associated with fog there from around 06z-09z prior
to mid level clouds increasing again after that time.

Low level clouds will scour out once the cold front pushes
through between around 15z-16z, with VFR conditions returning.
VFR should then prevail through the rest of the TAF period
ending 06z Friday.

Winds will be mainly southerly around 4-12 kt with some gusts
near 20 kt at KALB through the early morning hours. Winds will
shift to the northwest behind the cold front by late this
morning, with speeds increasing to 10-15 kt and gusts around
20-25 kt developing.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant/KL
NEAR TERM...Gant/KL/Main
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...JPV