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000
FXUS61 KALY 150758
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
358 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will result in some isolated to widely
scattered showers for areas mainly north of Interstate 90 today,
otherwise it will be partly sunny and mild. High pressure will
bring dry and mild weather on Tuesday and Wednesday,
with unsettled weather returning later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 4 AM EDT, areas of dense fog continue within portions of
the Hudson River Valley east into the Taconics and western New
England. Fog has become more patchy within the Mohawk Valley, as
mid level clouds advance east. As these mid level clouds
continue tracking east, the dense fog within the Capital Region
may tend to erode, as has occurred within the Mohawk Valley. An
SPS remains for the Dense Fog, and if visibilities do not
improve as the mid level clouds pass through, then a dense fog
advisory will be issued closer to daybreak.

After any fog lifts, expect partly sunny skies later this
morning through afternoon. Cold air aloft may promote isolated
to scattered rain showers/sprinkles for areas north of I-90
later this morning into the afternoon.

It will become breezy later this afternoon as mixing depth
increases, with some gusts possibly reaching 25-30 mph,
especially within the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region and
Berkshires, as well as across portions of the SE Catskills, mid
Hudson Valley and NW CT.

Afternoon high temps should reach the upper 50s to lower 60s
within most valley areas, except upper 60s to lower 70s across
the mid Hudson Valley. Higher terrain areas across the southern
Adirondacks and southern VT may only reach the upper 40s to
lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Isolated showers/sprinkles may persist across portions of the
southern Adirondacks/southern VT through this evening, otherwise
dry weather is expected through at least Wednesday morning. It
will become breezy once mixing depth increases Tuesday afternoon
once again, with west/northwest winds possibly reaching 25-30
mph across portions of the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region and
Berkshires. Lows tonight and Monday night in the mid/upper 20s
to lower 30s across the southern Adirondacks and upper Hudson
Valley, with mid 30s to lower 40s elsewhere. Highs Tuesday
afternoon in the lower/mid 60s for valley areas, and 55-60 for
most higher terrain areas.

For Wednesday, latest guidance continues to suggest a slower
arrival of clouds and showers with next system, as upper level
confluent flow keeps high pressure closer to the region. For
now, have a slow increase in clouds, with low chances for
showers across western areas late in the day, while remaining
dry from the Capital Region and points north and east. However,
there remains some uncertainty in the timing of any incoming
showers. Assuming showers hold off, max temps should reach the
upper 50s to lower/mid 60s in valley areas, warmest for the
upper Hudson Valley region.

Showers slowly advance north and east Wednesday night, however
dry air from lingering high pressure may tend to erode showers
from reaching portions of the SE Adirondacks, upper Hudson
Valley and southern VT. Lows mainly in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Long term period begins at 12z Thursday with upper troughing to our
west, and an associated surface low tracking north of the Great
Lakes. Upper ridging may help to keep us relatively dry through the
first part of the morning, although chances for showers increase in
the afternoon as the system`s occluded front tracks across the
region. The front will be slow-moving, so some showers could linger
into Thursday night. With more clouds and showers around, it will be
a few to several degrees cooler than Wednesday with highs mainly in
the 40s (terrain) to 50s (valleys) and lows in the 30s to 40s.

Friday into Saturday...Upper troughing slides eastwards, helping to
drive a stronger cold front through the region. There are some
significant timing differences with the frontal passage in numerical
guidance, so at this time will just lean towards the middle ground
NBM solution with the frontal passage daytime Saturday. Regardless
of the exact timing, additional showers are expected with the cold
frontal passage. Behind the cold front, cooler and drier weather is
expected for the second half of the weekend into early next week
with cold/dry advection and high pressure building in from the west.
Temperatures will likely run below normal for this timeframe. The
CPC is expecting near to sightly below normal temperatures and near
to slightly below normal precipitation for days 8 to 14.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06z Tuesday...Mainly IFR or lower conditions early this
morning, with some MVFR conditions at POU. Low-level moisture and
calm winds have allowed for fog to form across the area, and fog has
become dense in some places. Will have to watch scattered mid-level
clouds moving in from the west as these may help to briefly
dissipate the fog as they move overhead, but we will likely see fog
re-form after these clouds pass through. So, will see prevailing IFR
conditions through around 12z with LIFR to VLIFR conditions possible
as well during this timeframe, and especially between now and
sunrise.

Fog should lift this morning between 12-14z, although forecast
confidence is only low to moderate on the exact timing. However,
once fog lifts, we will just see scattered to occasionally broken
clouds between 3500 and 5000 ft through the remainder of the day
today with prevailing VFR conditions at all terminals. VFR
conditions continue into tonight with clouds diminishing after
sunset.

Winds will be light to calm through mid-morning, then increase to
around 10 kt from the west with gusts to around 20 kt lasting
through around 00z. Winds diminish to around 5 kt from the
west/northwest after 00z and lasting through the end of the TAF
period.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/Rathbun
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...Main
AVIATION...Main