Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
000
FXUS64 KAMA 171145
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
645 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024
Well above normal temperatures in the 80s are in the offing for
today as generally zonal flow aloft prevails. These highs are
about 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year.
However, the lofty temperatures will not last long. A fairly
strong cold front will track southward across the Oklahoma and
Texas Panhandles late tonight and Thursday morning with much
cooler temperatures anticipated behind the boundary. Highs on
Thursday will likely only reach into the 60s with perhaps lower
70s across the far southeast Texas Panhandle. These temperatures
will be around 15 to 25 degrees cooler than highs foreseen today.
In addition, north winds in the breezy to windy categories are
expected Thursday due to a tight pressure gradient as cool surface
high pressure builds into the area in the wake of the cold front.
Short range models are in good agreement and were accepted.
02
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024
The below normal temperatures mentioned above will persist through
the weekend. The next upper level shortwave trof is forecast to
impact the region Friday night through Sunday morning and will
likely bring the next chance for precipitation. Specific details
such as rainfall amounts associated with this next storm system
remain in question given this is still 3 to 4 days out in time.
Nevertheless, medium range deterministic models and the associated
ensembles are in reasonable agreement with respect to timing and
were accepted. This translates to late Friday night into Saturday
as the greatest threat for precipitation to occur, and this is
reflected in the NBM pops. Rain chances diminish Saturday night
into Sunday morning. Dry weather returns area-wide by mid morning
Sunday through Monday as the upper level shortwave trof heads
east of the area and is replaced by an upper level ridge of high
pressure on Monday which will lead to warmer temperatures on that
day. NBM pops and temperatures look reasonable based on the progged
synoptic pattern and were incorporated into all periods of the long
term forecast.
02
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024
For the 12Z TAFs, VFR conditions are anticipated through 12Z. A
strong cold front will move through KGUY and KDHT near the end of
this forecast cycle with north winds in its wake. This boundary is
expected to affect KAMA just after this forecast cycle. Some
potential exists for MVFR cigs to develop at KGUY near 12Z
Thursday. This far out in time and due to high uncertainty, have
only included a sct MVFR deck at KGUY for this forecast.
02
&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 85 50 65 42 / 0 0 0 0
Beaver OK 87 46 64 37 / 0 0 0 0
Boise City OK 82 42 61 36 / 0 0 0 0
Borger TX 89 52 67 43 / 0 0 0 0
Boys Ranch TX 87 48 67 42 / 0 0 0 0
Canyon TX 85 49 67 42 / 0 0 0 0
Clarendon TX 87 52 69 44 / 0 0 0 0
Dalhart TX 83 43 63 37 / 0 0 0 0
Guymon OK 84 44 63 36 / 0 0 0 0
Hereford TX 86 49 69 42 / 0 0 0 0
Lipscomb TX 88 51 66 41 / 0 0 0 0
Pampa TX 86 51 65 42 / 0 0 0 0
Shamrock TX 89 53 69 44 / 0 0 0 0
Wellington TX 89 53 72 45 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...02