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000
FXUS63 KAPX 161409
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1009 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning for all of northern lower Michigan this
  afternoon.

- Rain, strong winds return tonight.

- Convective showers/embedded thunderstorms and gusty winds
  continue Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1009 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Dry low levels mixing as per discussion below. After discussion
with neighboring offices and DNR, have opted into a Red Flag
Warning for all of northern lower Michigan from noon to 8pm this
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Pattern Synopsis:

Strong troughing continues to eject over the Great Plains early this
morning and will quickly progress across the Midwest into tonight,
pushing amplified ridging over the Great Lakes and east of the
region by the end of the period. Forcing aloft provided by
aformentioned troughing will support an associated surface cyclone
that will begin to work across the central Great Plains this
afternoon and evening.

Forecast Details:

Elevated fire danger today: Sunny skies and mild temperatures are in
store for northern Michigan today, especially across areas around
and south of Grand Traverse Bay where highs look to climb into the
mid to upper 60s. East winds will become increasingly strong today
into tonight, gusting to 20-30 mph by mid afternoon/evening.
Efficient daytime mixing will lead to minimum relative humidity
values between 20-25% for most of interior northern Michigan this
afternoon. With these conditions combining with dry fuels from
recent lack of rainfall, elevated fire danger will be in place for
interior northern Michigan -- particularly for areas along and west
of I-75 -- this afternoon.

Rain, strong winds return tonight: Rain and associated cloud cover
will begin to move in from the southwest this evening and tonight as
the aforementioned system works closer to the Great Lakes. Best rain
chances for northern Michigan will come after midnight. While not
necessarily expected, a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out
entirely overnight. Winds will also continue to pick up overnight,
gusting as high as 35-50 mph into Wednesday morning. Isolated power
outages may be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Midlevel split flow pattern across North America with weak shortwave
ridging over the eastern half of the CONUS and closed low pressure
with associated troughing over the Rockies. Surface high pressure
and quiet weather over the Great Lakes region is quickly replaced by
a weak cyclone associated with the aformentioned closed low over the
Rockies at the start of the forecast period.

Showers and thunderstorms will persist mainly into Wednesday evening
as the toughing pattern begins to weaken and progress northward,
eventually drying things out across the CWA. A secondary midlevel
trough currently over the northern Pacific grows and settles over
Manitoba, leaving the Great Lakes region in troughing for the
rest of the long term period. Weather remains unimpactful this
weekend into early next week, but lingering bits of low level
moisture could bring showers from time to time accompanied by
temperatures cooler than normal for late April.


Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

Convective showers/embedded thunderstorms with gusty winds
expected this Wednesday: Main focus for the long term forecast
is the first half as surface low pressure pushes its way through
the region on Wednesday, while weakening. The warm sector is
set to remain south of the CWA, keeping most rainfall during the
afternoon and evening hours associated with the occluded front.
QPF will remain pretty uneven due to the convective nature of
showers. Latest convective guidance keeps a general quarter to
one inch for most areas by 12Z Thursday as the core of the low
is depicted to move through the straights. Wind gusts also
remain a concern this Wednesday ahead of the low passage with
veering winds in the teens gusting to gale force for areas near
the straits.

Chances of precipitation decrease as we head towards Friday and weak
midlevel troughing pattern takes over the region. Lingering showers
remain possible, but relatively unimpactful weather is expected
at this time. Drier conditions favored later this weekend
accompanied by cooler than normal temperatures, but too early to
tell if favorable wildfire chances for the end of April across
the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected across northern Michigan TAF sites today
into this evening. Winds will gradually increase out of the east
today, becoming around 10 kts with gusts near 20 kts during the
afternoon. Strongest winds are expected to come towards the end of
the issuance period with sustained winds of 15-20 kts with gusts to
25-40 kts. With strong winds just off the surface, LLWS will be
possible at TAF sites late tonight into Wednesday morning.
Otherwise, rain and associated cloud cover will move in from
southwest to northeast late this evening and tonight. MVFR CIGs are
anticipated across all TAF sites by the end of the issuance
period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ016>018-
     020>036-041-042-098-099.
     Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EDT Wednesday for
     MIZ016-017-020>022-025>028-031>033-097>099.
     Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM EDT Wednesday for MIZ086>088-
     095-096.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
     LHZ345>347.
     Gale Warning from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Wednesday for LHZ348-349.
     Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
     LMZ341-342.
     Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Wednesday
     for LMZ323-344>346.
     Gale Warning from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JHV
SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...DJC