278
FNUS73 KAPX 131509
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Lost Creek Unit 8 RX...USFS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1109 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on May 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Sunny skies and rain-free weather is expected across the area on
Tuesday. Early morning temperatures in the upper 30s/low 40s at the
burn site are expected to warm into the low to mid 60s during the
afternoon. Light north winds in the morning will gradually turn to
northeast winds between 5-10 mph by afternoon. Gusts to around 15
mph will be possible at times. Afternoon RHs are expected to stay
between 30-40 percent, which is above near-critical thresholds.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 66.
Min humidity........38 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds.
Transport winds.....North 10 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......1100-2900 ft AGL increasing to 3100-4400 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (129.0-447.0).

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........9   10  11  12  14  15  17  15  13  11
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............44  48  52  55  58  61  63  64  64  64
RH..............76  68  61  55  49  43  39  38  38  38
20 ft wind dir..N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 ft wind spd..5   9   9   9   9   9   9   9   9   9
20 ft wind gust.9   12  12  12  12  12  12
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.5 2.2 2.9 3.1 3.6 4.0 4.3 4.4 4.3
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.12  15  15  15  12  10  10  10  10  10
Vrate kt-ft.....129 231 326 431 362 366 414 434 447 445
Ventrate Cat....PR  FR  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 37.
Max humidity........85 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds.
Transport winds.....North 9 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......2300-3800 ft AGL decreasing to 400-1600 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (41.0-424.0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........10  9   8   7   6   5   5   5   5   6   8   9
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............63  62  60  56  52  49  47  45  44  42  41  40
RH..............38  38  41  48  56  64  68  70  70  75  79  85
20 ft wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N   N   NE  NE  NE
20 ft wind spd..9   9   9   7   7   7   6   6   6   7   7   7
20 ft wind gust.13  13  13  12  12  12  9   9   9   9   9   9
Mix hgt (kft)...3.8 3.1 2.3 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6
Haines index....3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE
Transp wind spd.12  13  13  13  12  10  10  10  10  10  9   9
Vrate kt-ft.....424 370 288 192 110 57  41  44  53  48  45  51
Ventrate Cat....GD  GD  FR  FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........34 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds.
Transport winds.....Northeast 10 to 14 mph.
Mixing height.......600-2000 ft AGL increasing to 3000-4900 ft AGL
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (63.0-521.0) increasing to good
                    (479.0) in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........9      8      11     14     19     13
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............41     45     54     61     64     66
RH..............85     76     59     46     40     36
20 ft wind dir..NE     NE     NE     NE     NE     NE
20 ft wind spd..8      8      10     10     10     10
20 ft wind gust.12     12     14     16     16     16
Mix hgt (ft)....600    1200   3000   4200   4600   4900
Haines index....3      3      3      3      4      4
Transport wind..NE 10  NE 13  NE 14  NE 14  NE 12  NE 10
Vrate kt-ft.....63     154    408    563    535    524
Ventrate Cat....POOR   FAIR   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD

$$
Forecaster...DJC
Requested by...Travis Wiltse
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413974.0/APX
.DELDT 05/13/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL travis.a.wiltse@usda.gov