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000
AXNT20 KNHC 151012
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Apr 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A subtropical ridge centered north of the
Greater Antilles. This is forcing gale force winds which will end
this morning. Seas are 8 to 11 ft. Fresh to strong winds will
continue in the south- central Caribbean through at least Thu.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W and continues southwestward to 05N16W. The ITCZ
extends from 05N16W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed south of 06N and east of 26W.
Similar convection is noted south of 04N and between 21W and 46W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure system located in the NE Gulf of Mexico
dominates the basin, maintaining fairly tranquil weather
conditions. Moderate to occasionally fresh E-SE winds are present
south of 26N and east of 90E and in the remainder of the Gulf west
of 90W. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Light to gentle winds and
slight seas are found in the NE Gulf, north of 26N and east of
90E.

For the forecast, high pressure dominates the Gulf basin. Strong
winds will pulse off the northwest Yucatan peninsula during the
next several evenings. Winds will become fresh to strong over the
western Gulf on tonight into Tue. Otherwise, moderate winds and
seas will prevail through most of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about a gale
warning off the coast of Colombia.

A surface trough is analyzed in the NE Caribbean Sea, along 67W.
Isolated showers are noted near the boundary, affecting the
islands in the area and surrounding waters. Similar convection is
also noted in the north-central Caribbean, affecting SW Haiti.
Generally dry conditions are found elsewhere in the Caribbean.

Outside of the gale warning region, the pressure gradient between
the broad subtropical ridge north of the Greater Antilles and
lower pressures in the deep tropics result in strong to near
gale-force easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean.
Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds and
seas of 4-7 ft are found in the north-central Caribbean,
including the Windward Passage, eastern Caribbean and lee of Cuba.
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the
remaining waters.

For the forecast, gale-fresh to strong winds will prevail off the
coast of Colombia, pulsing to gale- force tonight with seas to 11
ft. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse in the Windward
Passage, S of the Dominican Republic, and in the Lee of Cuba for
the next few days. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds and
moderate seas can be expected across much of the basin through the
middle of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front enters the western Atlantic near 31N58W and
continues southwestward to eastern Cuba. Light showers are
evident on satellite imagery near the frontal boundary. Farther
east, a broad 1006 mb low pressure system is located near
32N31W. Overnight scatterometer satellite pass show fresh to
strong cyclonic winds north of 25N and between 27W and 45W. Wave
heights in these waters are 10-17 ft, with the highest seas
occurring near 31N36W. Seas ranging 8 to 10 ft extend as far south
as 12N and as far west as Puerto Rico. Meanwhile, a trough is
noted south of the low along with a cold front in the waters
31N22W to 25N25W. Gentle winds are noted E of 25W to the coast of
Africa. Fresh winds are noted S of 22N.

For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front will gradually
dissipate today. Large N-NE swell across the waters impacting
Puerto Rico southward to the Leeward islands will linger through
the middle of the week. High pressure will continue to build over
waters N of 20N, bringing more tranquil marine conditions..

$$
AReinhart