Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBGM 241816
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
216 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring a clear and cold night for the region. Dry
conditions, along with a moderating trend in temperatures will
continue for Monday and Tuesday, before another system will
bring a chance for rain showers for the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1230 PM Update...

Northwest flow and upslope moisture advection allowed clouds to
develop this morning over Central NY and Northeast PA. Stubborn
Lake Effect clouds are expected to mix out soon after sunset.
Updated sky cover to account for these clouds lingering longer
over the Twin Tiers. Otherwise previous forecast remains on
track.

830 AM Update...

Updated Pops to include a slight chance snow flurries over
Central NY and the Northern Tier of PA. Also made slight
adjustments to temperatures and dew points using a blend of
current observations and the previous forecast. No other changes
needed at this time.

530 AM Update...

Much quieter weather is expected today as high pressure moves
into the area. With the coastal low continuing to move rapidly
away from the area through the Canadian Maritimes, the pressure
gradient between this low pressure and the incoming high
pressure system has relaxed and therefore winds have
significantly diminished. There are still a few pockets of lake
effect clouds and some flurries early this morning across
Central NY and even across parts of Northeast PA, but this will
dissipate by late morning as drier air wins out and high
pressure takes control. With 850mb temperatures starting off at
around -13C and only topping out at around -8C, it will be quite
chilly for this time of the year, with highs only in the lower
30s to lower 40s.

With mostly clear skies and light winds, tonight will be another
decent radiational cooling night, especially across areas along
and north of the NY Thruway corridor with the snow cover still
in place. Lows are expected to be in the mid teens to mid 20s
for most of the area, with some single digits across parts of
northern Oneida County.

A southeasterly return flow will allow for much warmer
temperatures on Monday, with highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
Skies will remain mostly sunny with high pressure remaining in
control.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
For Tuesday, the larger scale shows a short wave feature ejecting
out of the plains and riding northeast reaching the Great Lakes by
Tuesday evening. The main long wave trough is still across the
Plains at this time hence the flow aloft with all be south to
southwest as this short wave rides northeast Tuesday. The low-level
flow Tuesday will be south to southeast with mild air in place
across all of central NY and northeast PA. The 12z NAM shows a well
developed marine layer engulfing our whole forecast area to include
pretty much almost all of NY and PA BY Tuesday afternoon. The 12z
NAM holds the showery precipitation off until after 00Z Wednesday
with the weak front moving into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.
However, the 12Z NAM does have some patchy drizzle. The 12Z GFS also
has significant low-level moisture affecting much of Central
NY/northeast PA as well. The 12z CMC is less aggressive with this
low-level moisture. The 06z Euro also shows a fair amount in the
morning which backs off in the afternoon. We will increase cloud
cover Tuesday to account for this marine layer. Except for the NAM
the other models don`t have the drizzle but do show showers with the
approaching front and short wave in the Great Lakes reaching into
western NY and PA late Tuesday. The GFS is fastest touching the
western Finger Lakes before 00z Wednesday. NBM has slight chance far
western Steuben Co which looks reasonable and will go with.

Then for Tuesday night, pre-frontal moisture works across central NY
and northeast PA. Model QPFs dry out some as this moisture outruns
its upper support initially. However, there will be at least some
scattered rain showers. NBM covers this well with scattered showers
overspreading all of central NY and northeast PA Tuesday night.

For Wednesday, cold front slowly presses east as the larger scale
trough moves into the Great lakes. Continued southerly moist flow
will bring more showers to the region Wednesday. Instability will be
lacking but guidance is suggesting a band of heavier rain sets up as
the front slowly moves into NY and PA Wednesday night. Axis of
heaviest rain at this point looks like it will remain east of our
forecast area but we will see high POPs for rain showers. Again
instability will be lacking so no thunderstorms expected. NBM looks
excellent for Wednesday and Wednesday night and will follow. No need
to depart from NBM at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
For Thursday lingering precipitation comes to an end as per
deterministic CMC, Euro and GFS. NBM holds on to chance of showers
longer which likely is reflected by the Euro ensembles. We will keep
chance POPs in our eastern areas and slight chance western forecast
area. For Thursday night, deterministic models show no precipitation
over central NY or northeast PA but NBM holds onto the slight chance
as uncertainties exist with a wave forming along the coast.

Then for Friday, northwest flow of colder air engulfs regions which
could lead to some weak lake response. The CMC shows this the best
but if anything forms it should be light given the fairly cold lake
temperatures and 850 temperatures only -5C or so. NBM holds onto a
slight chance POP for central NY Friday and we will keep.

For next weekend, models really diverge with the next system or lack
thereof coming into the Great Lakes. Uncertainities are large so we
will stay with NBM for now.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Brief MVFR ceilings are expected at BGM this afternoon due to
lingering lake effect clouds. Clouds are expected to mix out
this evening as the sun sets with VFR conditions returning to
BGM. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected at all terminals for
the entire period.

Northwest winds continue this afternoon becoming light and
variable overnight. Winds shift southeast tomorrow morning.


Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...Occasional restrictions
possible in rain showers, especially during the day on
Wednesday.

Thursday & Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG/DJN
NEAR TERM...BJG/ES
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...ES


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.