534
FXUS63 KBIS 092010
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
Issued by National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
310 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for precipitation return at the end of the weekend.

- Near normal to above normal temperatures and more precipitation
expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Diurnal cumulus clouds are filling in on satellite across western
North Dakota this afternoon. Based on soundings, these clouds are a
result of mid-level moisture. As the afternoon goes on, some of
these may become strong enough to produce showers, but any rain that
falls will have to overcome low level dryness to make it to the
surface.

Synoptically, the pattern is full of opportunities for precipitation
as shortwaves and clippers galore propogate through the region. This
weekend, northwest flow takes over briefly, followed by a shortwave
system mid-week next week. Temperatures through the period will be
in the 70s starting Saturday, some days approaching 80 degrees along
the South Dakota border.

The first system in the forecast after today`s frontal showers will
be a clipper system expected Friday. The precipitation zone looks to
be more in eastern North Dakota with this, but a scenario exists
where isolated showers could develop further west (20 - 30%
likelihood of occurrence). Regardless, this system`s main effect on
western North Dakota will be breezy northwesterly winds. This raises
some concerns for fire weather as the atmosphere mixes and RHs drop
into the 20% range, but recent precipitation means fuels have
greened up a bit so unsure how significant the low RHs and breezy
winds will be.

Precipitation chances increase once again to start the work week, as
a train of shortwaves seem to blend into each other through mid-
week. Probabilities of >= 0.1" Monday morning through Wednesday
morning are 70% across western North Dakota, but once those
probabilities increase to half an inch over the 48 hour period, the
likelihood drops to 20 - 30%, with the higher probs in that range
being in the James River Valley and in a pocket around Minot. What
likely will occur is isolated showers and thunderstorms across the
region for those days. With probabilities for exceeding 500 J/kg
less than 20%, severe thunderstorms appear unlikely at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Expect VFR conditions for all TAF sites through the period. A
brief lowering this afternoon and evening is possible with SHRA
passing through the region, but TS are not expected. Winds will
remain gusty around 20 - 25 kts this afternoon, and lessen to 5 -
10 kt overnight. Higher winds expected once again in the area,
but this time a bit more east (JMS will see highest gusts on
Friday).

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...FGF/AH
AVIATION...FGF/AH