077
FNUS73 KBIS 040930
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for Audubon NWR DU28...US FWS
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
430 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 CDT on May 04.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

A partly sunny sky can be expected for most of the day, though the
morning could feature more clouds than sun. There is a low chance
for a stray shower this afternoon, but it is far more likely that
dry weather will prevail. Humidity around 85 percent at ignition
time will steadily decrease through the afternoon, falling to
around 50 percent during the late afternoon and early evening.
This morning will be breezier than the afternoon, with northwest
winds around 10 mph becoming lighter and variable later in the
day. A lake breeze of around 5 to 10 mph out of the southwest
could develop at the burn site during the afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 55.
Min humidity........48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 7 to 10 mph in the
                    morning, becoming west to southwest around
                    5 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 to 15 mph shifting to the west
                    around 5 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (17000 to 28000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........57  61  75  79  80  71  75  59  57  57  57
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   10  10  0   0   10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............36  37  40  42  44  46  47  49  50  52  52
RH..............92  96  89  86  79  73  68  63  61  54  52
20 FT wind dir..W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..7   9   9   9   8   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.13  14  13  12  11  8   9   8   8   7   7
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.3 3.1 3.4 4.0 4.2 4.6 4.3
Transp wind dir.W   W   NW  NW  N   NW  NW  NW  W   W   W
Transp wind spd.14  13  13  12  12  9   8   8   7   6   6
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Dispr kt-ft/1K..6   8   13  17  23  24  24  28  25  23  22

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 34.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds in the evening
                    becoming southeast around 5 to 10 mph
                    overnight.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Light and variable early in the evening, then
                    becoming southeast 8 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (17000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........29  20  22  16  10  12  18  15  17  31  30  18
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).10  0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............53  53  50  46  43  41  40  39  37  37  36  35
RH..............48  48  54  65  70  79  79  85  92  89  92  96
20 FT wind dir..W   SW  SE  E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   7   7
20 FT wind gust.6   6   6   7   8   9   9   9   9   9   10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...4.3 3.7 2.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.W   SW  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.5   5   6   7   10  9   10  12  12  12  13  13
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4
Dispr kt-ft/1K..17  15  11  3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph in the morning,
                    increasing to 17 to 22 mph with gusts to
                    around 32 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 14 to 22 mph increasing to 25 to 32
                    mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (145000 knot-ft) in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........17        7         12        22
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         0         0         0
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............35        45        59        66
RH..............92        70        46        36
20 FT wind......SE 7G9    SE 11G15  SE 16G26  SE 21G31
Mix hgt (ft)....400       1100      3300      4800
Transport wind..SE 14     SE 21     SE 28     SE 32
Haines index....4         4         4         4
Dispr kt-ft/1K..5         19        80        135

$$
Forecaster...HOLLAN
Requested by...Lennie Houle
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413110.0/BIS
.DELDT 05/04/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL lennie_houle@fws.gov