853
FXUS64 KBMX 021121
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
621 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 203 AM CDT THU MAY 2 2024

Another warm day on tap across Central Alabama with plenty of
sunshine and temperatures reaching the upper 80s in most places.
The combination of very warm temperatures and a weak surface
boundary that stretches from near Tupelo to Auburn could result in
isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Fair this evening with no
rain expected. A short wave trough currently over Texas and
Oklahoma will track eastward today and tonight. Showers with
embedded storms will impact areas along and north of I-20 after
midnight. The rain cooled air mass will push southward on Friday
triggering numerous showers and a chance of thunderstorms to areas
north of I-85. Any storms that develop are expected to remain
below severe limits today through Friday.

58/rose

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 203 AM CDT THU MAY 2 2024

We will continue to see a shortwave slide through the area Friday
night in Saturday. This along with the subtropical jet streak
nosing in, we should see scattered to numerous showers and storms
into Saturday morning. The highest chances will be in the north
where heights will be lower. Overall dynamics are weak with this
system so severe weather is not expected.

Sunday into Monday ridging will strengthen ahead of a deep trough
moving into the western CONUS. Rain chances will decrease, but there
will still be some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity with
elevated PWATs combined with weak shortwaves and daytime heating.
Ridging and associated warm air aloft increases further on Tuesday
as a deep upper low ejects out over the Northern Plains. This should
result in dry conditions with 90 degree temperatures becoming more
common across the southern counties as low-level southwesterly flow
strengthens for end of this period.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT THU MAY 2 2024

VFR conds thru the period with mainly high level clouds and
isolated TSRA during the afternoon hours. Sfc winds becoming
southeast 5-7 kts after 14Z.

58/rose

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Min RHs will be in the 30s again this afternoon with 20 foot winds
from the south around 5-7 mph. A few isolated showers may develop
during peak heating this afternoon, but chances remain low.
Moisture increases on Friday as a system moves into the area. RH
values will fall into the mid to upper 30s in the southeast, with
40s elsewhere. 20 foot winds from the south around 4-6 mph. Good
overnight recoveries are expected each night. Scattered
showers/storms return for Friday afternoon in the northwest and
spread east through Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     88  64  81  62 /  10  30  50  70
Anniston    88  66  81  63 /  10  20  40  60
Birmingham  88  68  81  64 /  10  30  50  60
Tuscaloosa  88  68  80  64 /  20  30  50  50
Calera      87  67  80  65 /  20  20  40  50
Auburn      87  67  85  67 /  10  10  20  40
Montgomery  89  67  86  66 /  20  10  20  30
Troy        89  64  88  65 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...58/rose