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000
FXUS64 KBMX 141935
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
235 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2024

This afternoon.

A northwest flow aloft prevails over the forecast area with a
mid-level weakness over the Southeast Atlantic Coast while
amplified longwave ridging was evident over much of the Southern
and Central Plains. A shortwave disturbance was progged over the
Mid-South Region and will move east over the area later this
afternoon. The 14.12z BMX sounding overall contained a relatively
dry profile, except for a layer of high relative humidity from
roughly 580 up to 480 mb, or from roughly 15kft to 20kft. In this
thin layer is where clouds are developing and moving across the
area in response to the upper vertical motion ahead of the
approaching shortwave. The lower levels remain too dry for lower
clouds or any precipitation. Surface high pressure is centered
just east of the Northeast Florida Atlantic Coast.

Expect more high clouds over the area through the afternoon.
Winds will be from the southwest from 5-10 mph. Highs will range
from the low 80s far north and in the higher elevations east to
the mid 80s southwest and far south.

Tonight.

While the shortwave moves over Northern Georgia overnight, highly
amplified ridging will build east over the Lower and Middle
Mississippi River Valley Region as an upper low moves east out of
California to over Northern Arizona and Southern Utah. Surface
high pressure will become elongated and will extend from across
the Southwest Atlantic westward across much of the Florida
Panhandle.

Skies will remain partly cloudy across the eastern third of the
area while a decrease in clouds is forecast across the west and
eventually central portions of the state through the night. Winds
will remain from the southwest will be light from 2-4 mph. Low
temperatures will range from the low 50s northeast and far east to
the mid 50s west and far south.

Monday.

Longwave mid-level ridging will move further east with the
southern extent of the ridge axis over the Lower and Middle
Mississippi River Valley. Surface high pressure will continue to
remain across the Southwest Atlantic and further west across much
of the Florida Peninsula while lower pressure will develop and
across the Front Range of the Rockies.

Skies will be mostly sunny across the area Monday with a few more
high to mid level clouds expected across the far west later in
the day. Winds will be from the south-southwest at 5-10 mph. High
temperatures will range from the low 80s far north and in the
higher elevations east to readings in the mid 80s southwest and
far south.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2024

Forecast remains on track through midweek, as a weak front arrives
early Wednesday morning. With forcing removed to the north and a
lack of deep moisture, isolated to scattered rain chances remain
limited to the north and west.

Model solutions diverge Thursday into Friday, as to whether a
southern stream weak shortwave brings rain chances back to the
area. Will favor a drier, more consistent, solution with weak
ridging building over the region and rain chances limited to the
north on Friday as a weak front pushes southward from a system
moving across the Great Lakes.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2024

An upper-level trough will move from the Central Plains toward the
Middle Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Southerly flow will
strengthen across our region in advance of this system, and we can
expect warm and somewhat breezy conditions Tuesday afternoon.
Rain chances will increase late Tuesday night into Wednesday as a
trailing cold front approaches from the northwest. As the southern
end of the front loses upper-level support, the front should
weaken and decrease in forward speed. The southern extent of rain
chances may be limited to the northern half of the forecast area
on Wednesday.

There appears to be a break in the rain chances for Thursday
before another upper-level trough moves across the Upper Midwest
and Great Lakes region late Thursday into Friday. Rain chances are
expected to increase on Friday as a front approaches from the
northwest. This activity may linger into Saturday, but model
consistency and agreement is rather poor on day 7.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle. An upper-level
disturbance is bringing mid to high scattered clouds to much of
the area today and tonight but dry conditions will persist. Expect
only a few mid to upper level clouds during the day Monday. Low-
level winds will be from the southwest through this cycle with
speeds from 6-9 kts today, 1-3 kts tonight and 4-7 kts on Monday.
There may be some brief patchy fog across portions of the
southwest and far south before sunrise Monday, but potential is
too low to include at any terminal for this issuance.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions will be in place through early next week, with rain
chances returning Tuesday night and Wednesday, mainly for the
north and east. Moisture begins returning Monday with 20ft winds
increasing from the southeast at 5-8mph. Minimum RH values will
range from 25 to 45 percent. Locations in the east are most likely
to drop to 25 percent, and only for a few hours. Overnight RH
values Monday night rebound to above 80 percent. Tuesday, 20ft
winds become southerly at 6-12mph, with minimum RH values above 30
percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     52  83  57  82 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    53  83  58  82 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  57  84  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  55  83  59  84 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      54  82  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      55  83  57  81 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  53  83  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        54  83  56  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....14/87
AVIATION...05