Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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078 FXUS64 KBMX 031749 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1249 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 903 AM CDT FRI MAY 3 2024 The short-term forecast remains on-track, just made minor adjustments to PoPs and Sky cover. The initial shortwave is now over Northeast Georgia while we have some lingering showers across parts of the northern counties with heavier activity across the far northwest where a few lightning strikes were detected from time to time. This activity is likely occurring along an outflow boundary. A more-defined shortwave is over much of Arkansas and Northern Louisiana and will continue approaching the area through midday. Expect increasing clouds across the west and southwest from mid to late morning with chances for showers and storms developing and arriving from the west through the afternoon, expanding further eastward with time through the rest of the afternoon and into tonight. 05 Previous short-term discussion: (Today through Saturday) Issued at 242 AM CDT FRI MAY 3 2024 A rather messy upper flow pattern the next few days with several waves of showers and embedded thunderstorms to track eastward across the northern portions of Central Alabama. Despite decent coverage of rain each day across the north, rainfall amounts will be rather modest with most areas receiving less than one-half inch of total rainfall. Highs in the mid to upper 80s expected across areas south of I-20, while cloud cover and rain will keep temperatures slightly cooler north of I-20, with highs in the lower to middle 80s. 58/rose && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 253 AM CDT FRI MAY 3 2024 Weak quasi-zonal flow aloft continues Sunday, with yet another convectively enhanced shortwave/MCV moving in from the Plains during the late afternoon and evening hours. PWATs around 1.8 inches will be favorable for scattered to numerous showers and storms developing with daytime heating, highest chances north. The shortwave appears a touch slower than previously forecast and have raised PoPs Sunday evening. Shortwave ridging in advance of the shortwave trough should allow temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 80s ahead of convection. A deep trough will eject across the Central and Northern Plains Monday with ridging building ahead of it. The prior weak shortwave may still be close enough to some of the northeastern counties to enhance diurnal convection there. The deep trough remains across the north-central CONUS on Tuesday as ridging builds over the Southeast CONUS. Strengthening low-level southwesterly flow will cause efficient mixing and warming temperatures/lowering dew points especially across the southeast half of the area, suppressing convection. But moisture pooling ahead of a stalled frontal boundary may remain sufficient for isolated to scattered convection in the northwest counties. Wednesday and Thursday a trough with a strong positive tilt will extend from the Great Lakes to the Four Corners while subtropical ridging strengthens over the Gulf. The tightening mid-level height gradient between these two features will result in strengthening WSW flow aloft. A quasi-stationary frontal boundary will reside across the Mid-South with several waves of low pressure riding along it. A strong EML will result in a very unstable air mass south of the front with strong deep layer shear as well. An early spring heatwave with near record highs looks likely across the southern counties. Will have to watch any convective disturbances skirting near the northern counties along the northern fringes of the warmer 700mb temperatures given a conditionally favorable environment for severe storms. 32/Davis && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 PM CDT FRI MAY 3 2024 Clouds will continue to increase from the west and southwest through the afternoon. Showers with some storms will continue to develop across portions of the north and west portions of the area through mid afternoon, potentially affecting our northern terminals through late afternoon. More widespread showers and storms are moving east across Mississippi and will bring widespread chances for showers and storms late this afternoon and through the late evening hours. Lingering showers with a few storms will remain most persistent across the central and eastern counties overnight through late Saturday morning with lower chances to the south and west. 05 && .FIRE WEATHER... Moisture increases today. RH values will fall into the mid to upper 30s in the southeast, with higher values elsewhere. Scattered showers/storms return for Friday afternoon in the north and west and spread east through Saturday. RH values range from 40 to 60 percent Saturday afternoon, lowest values south. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 64 81 61 84 / 70 60 30 60 Anniston 63 82 63 85 / 70 60 30 60 Birmingham 65 82 65 86 / 70 50 30 50 Tuscaloosa 65 86 65 86 / 70 40 20 50 Calera 65 85 65 85 / 70 40 20 50 Auburn 65 85 66 84 / 50 40 30 40 Montgomery 66 87 66 89 / 60 40 20 30 Troy 65 88 64 89 / 40 40 30 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....32 AVIATION...05