742
FXUS64 KBMX 300351
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1051 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 1031 PM CDT MON APR 29 2024

As expected, an increase in shower and storms is occurring across
northwest Central Alabama as a shortwave approaches from the west.
Will carry this activity eastward overnight, with most of the
activity east of I65 by sunrise. Weak lapse rates and shear,
combined with a warm layer aloft, will keep instabilities low.
Strong to severe storms are not expected. Temperatures overnight
will remain in the low to mid 60s.

14

Previous short-term discussion:
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT MON APR 29 2024

A weak line of showers continues to inch its way towards the AL/MS
state line in advance of a diffuse cold front over the ArkLaTex.
This weakening activity is progged to move into western portions of
the area late this afternoon and into the evening hours, but for
most of the afternoon we`ll experience a mix of sun and clouds with
highs in the lower to mid 80s. Poor mid-level lapse rates will limit
the instability in the atmosphere and shear values will be weak, so
severe storms are not expected. However, models are indicating an
increase in rainfall coverage overnight as the activity gets
increased upper-level support with the passage of the mid-level
shortwave trough. The corridor of showers and occasional
thunderstorms will be focused east of I-65 by tomorrow morning,
gradually shifting into Georgia through the afternoon as the trough
moves towards the Mid-Atlantic region. Some spots may get very
little rain while other locations may see 1 to 2 inches of
accumulation, but the highest amounts are expected in the northern
portions of the area. Cloud cover should gradually diminish west to
east during the day with temperatures ranging from the lower 80s
southwest to mid 70s northeast.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT MON APR 29 2024

The rain should be out of east Alabama by sunset Tuesday. There will
be a slight change in the air mass as surface winds become northerly
on Wednesday. The humidity will drop some but afternoon temperatures
will warm into the middle and upper 80s. Weak upper ridging
Wednesday and Thursday will result in very warm afternoon
temperatures with no rainfall. Some areas across south Alabama may
reach 90 degrees on Thursday. A northern stream short wave will
push a trof axis into Alabama Friday, which then stalls out over
Alabama Saturday and Sunday. Scattered mostly diurnal storms
expected Friday through Sunday.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 705 PM CDT MON APR 29 2024

An area of showers and a few thunderstorms is moving across west
Central Alabama, with little impact on aviation conditions. Cigs
are currently VFR with winds generally from the southeast at
4-8kts.

Expect showers and storms to continue eastward tonight, with an
increase in coverage and rain strength. Expect cigs to lower MVFR
by 06Z in the northwest and areawide by 11Z. Rainfall will end
from west to east through the day Tuesday. Winds will remain from
the south overnight, and gradually become northwesterly through
the day Tuesday. Speeds will remain at or below 10kts.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A very good chance of wetting rain overnight and into Tuesday
morning. The rain should exit east Alabama Tuesday afternoon. 20
foot winds will be south at 5-7 mph overnight, becoming west 6-8
mph on Tuesday. Rain free conditions Wednesday and Thursday with
RH values dropping into the 30s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     64  77  55  84 /  90  70   0   0
Anniston    64  77  57  84 /  70  70   0   0
Birmingham  65  78  59  85 /  90  60   0   0
Tuscaloosa  66  81  58  87 /  90  30   0   0
Calera      65  78  59  84 /  90  50   0   0
Auburn      65  77  60  83 /  40  60  10   0
Montgomery  66  81  60  87 /  60  60   0   0
Troy        64  80  61  87 /  40  60   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...14