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000
FXUS61 KBUF 100547
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
147 AM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes through the first
half of Wednesday, with a band of showers and a few thunderstorms.
The rain will gradually end from west to east on Wednesday. A large
area of low pressure will then move into the Great Lakes later in
the week, producing an extended period of wet and windy weather
Wednesday night through Friday night with several waves of soaking
rainfall and gusty winds. The rain may end as a little wet snow late
Friday night and early Saturday, especially across higher terrain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Regional radar shows clusters and broken lines of showers and
thunderstorms east and southeast of Lake Ontario. Brief heavy
downpours, gusty winds and pea size hail are possible in the
storms overnight. A few leftover showers across southwest New
York as well.

Mid level height falls will spread east across Ontario and Quebec
through Wednesday, with a weak surface cold front advancing east
across the eastern Great Lakes. The better forcing will remain north
of the US/Canadian border, but there is enough low level convergence
and marginal instability along the advancing front to support the
likelihood of showers and a few storms in most areas.

The cold front will temporarily slow its eastward progress Wednesday
as a weak baroclinic wave runs northeast along the frontal zone.
This wave will likely support a period of better organized showers
crossing the Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and portions of Central NY
during the morning and midday hours. There might be a few isolated
thunderstorms in this area as well from late morning through early
afternoon as very marginal diurnal instability develops. Meanwhile
areas close to the Canadian border, including the Niagara Frontier,
will see any lingering showers end in the morning with the passage
of the front. The showers will then gradually end from northwest to
southeast across the remainder of the area in the afternoon with
some partial clearing developing. Temperatures will not be as warm
as today, but still above average with highs in the 60s in most
locations.

Wednesday evening will start dry in most of the area as a brief
period of drier air and subsidence moves in behind the departing
cold front. The boundary will briefly stall over Pennsylvania
Wednesday evening, then accelerate northward as a warm front
overnight in response to a deepening system upstream over the
midwest states. Increasing warm advection, moisture transport, and
isentropic upglide will support a blossoming area of showers moving
from south to north across the area overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
By Thursday morning, model consensus has the warm frontal
boundary to our north, which would put our region in the warm
sector. While it will be moist, expect scattered showers but no
steady rain during the first half of Thursday when the area will
be in the warm sector. The surface low nudges closer and the
LLJ strengthens in the afternoon, bringing a better chance for
showers, especially Thursday night when the core of the LLJ
moves from west to east across the area. This could produce
moderate to heavy rainfall, with elevated instability suggesting
there`s even a chance of thunderstorms. Showers and storms
expected to produce moderate rainfall amounts in the half inch
to inch ballpark, which is unlikely to produce any flooding.

Southerly 50 knot flow at 850mb will partially mix to the surface in
favorable downslope regions downwind of the Chautauqua Ridge, Tug
Hill, and higher terrain in the Finger Lakes region. Advisory level
gusts to 50 mph are anticipated in these region, with gusts 35 to 45
mph expected elsewhere. These winds tend to be strongest during dry
periods.

The low will strengthen to about 984mb as it passes by to the north
during Friday. This will result in breezy southwesterly winds during
the day, along with periodic showers as an associated cold front
moves across the region. A few thunderstorms will be possible along
and ahead of the front. The low and mid level trough will be slow to
exit, maintaining a risk for showers through Friday night in the
northwesterly flow following the cold front.

Thursday will be warm with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s, and
nighttime temperatures will remain above normal Thursday night.
Cooler on Friday following the cold frontal passage with highs
mainly in the 50s. By Friday night it may be cool enough for some
wet snow to mix in across higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure will slowly exit northward across Quebec on Saturday,
with rain or wet snow showers tapering off from west to east. High
pressure will briefly ridge northward into the area Saturday night,
this will then be followed by a clipper low which will bring a
chance of showers Sunday and Sunday night. After this there is some
model disagreement, but the majority show a mainly dry pattern for
Monday and Tuesday next week.

High temperatures will be on the cool side on Saturday but then will
rebound to slightly above normal by Sunday. The warm pattern
through early next week with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms exiting north central New York
will impact KART through about 08Z with the embedded thunder likely
to remain out of KART. Flight conditions will remain VFR overnight,
however MVFR/IFR conditions will likely move up Lake Erie and reach
KJHW overnight.

Conditions will remain VFR at KIAG, KBUF, and KROC Wednesday morning
while ceilings lower to low end VFR/high end MVFR at KART.
Conditions will improve at KJHW by late Wednesday morning. A front
will move through the terminals by Wednesday afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday...MVFR to IFR with widespread rain and possibly a
thunderstorm.

Friday...MVFR/IFR with occasional showers and possibly a
thunderstorm.

Saturday...MVFR/IFR early with rain/snow showers, gradually
improving to VFR.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes through
Wednesday, but winds will be light through the period with
negligible wave action.

A strong low pressure system will then move northeast across the
Great Lakes later in the week. This will produce a period of
moderate east to southeast winds Thursday through Thursday night. A
cold front will then cross the region Friday, with moderate to
strong southwest winds behind the front later Friday becoming west
Friday night through Saturday, with an extended period of high end
Small Craft Advisory conditions.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/TMA
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/HSK/TMA
SHORT TERM...Apffel
LONG TERM...Apffel
AVIATION...HSK/TMA
MARINE...Hitchcock/TMA