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000
FXUS61 KCAR 151018
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
618 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A disturbance crosses the area today followed by a weak cold
front tonight. High pressure approaches later Tuesday, then
crosses the region Wednesday through Thursday. An occluded front
approaches Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6:17AM Update...No major changes. Minor tweaks to POPs based on
CBW radar trends showing showers working through much of the
north this morning.

Previous Discussion...
A weak boundary is pushing through Maine this morning with
isolated to scattered showers mainly across the north, mainly
from Baxter SP northward. Isolated to scattered showers pushing
east out of southern Quebec and Northern Vermont should push
eastward into NH and then eventually into Maine. These will
likely be very isolated this morning into Somerset and
Piscataquis counties and perhaps making it to Bangor. Best
chance of showers today will be across the northern 1/3rd of the
CWA with isolated showers across southern 2/3rd of the CWA.
More sunny breaks south will result in a warm day there with
highs in the upper 50s to near 60F. Low to mid 50s across the
northern 2/3rd of the CWA. Winds are shifting west today with
5-15mph expected.

Tonight, expect a break in between departing shortwave and
another piece of energy at 500mb diving south with even weaker
surface reflection. Isolated showers across the north and
departing isolated showers over the Downeast coast expected.
Some of these showers across the north may mix with wet
snowflakes as temperatures fall and wetbulb temps reach 32F.
Colder airmass is working into the area with lows in the low to
mid 30s north, mid 30s over the Central Highlands and upper 30s
to the Downeast coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A broad upper level trough will gradually shift eastward into
the Canadian Maritimes through the day on Tuesday. As it exits,
just enough instability and moisture will remain across the
area for the return of diurnally driven cumulus clouds and
convective showers. That said, since the main upper level
support will be decreasing as the trough axis exits the area,
showers will be fewer in number than seen the previous few days
under the bulk of the trough. Some snowflakes may mix in Tuesday
night, and will be most likely seen at higher elevations across
the North Woods. Accumulating snow is not likely, as low
temperatures Tuesday night will only just fall below freezing
across the north.

A ridge of high pressure will begin to build across northern New
England on Wednesday, leading to clearing skies. High
temperatures will lift into the 50s across much of the forecast
area on Wednesday, and fall to around freezing once more
Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Model trends continue to increase the strength and resilience of
the ridge of high pressure sitting across northern New England
into the latter half of the work week, with current consensus
being around a 1030 mb high. This setup will act to slow the
incoming occluded low pressure system. Current trends are still
for the occlusion to begin to diminish as it reaches the high
pressure, lessening the chance for widespread rain across the
forecast area Thursday night into Friday.

Eventually, the blocking ridge of high pressure will begin to
break down and shift eastward, and current guidance points to
this happening over the weekend, allowing for the triple point
low off the southern New England coast to rejuvenate a surface
trough extending up into our forecast area, and bringing a round
of scattered to numerous rain showers through our region.
However, there remains uncertainty in this evolution, with a
chance that the ridge of high pressure will continue to
overperform what is modeled, and delaying the threat for precip
even further. The longer the break in between wetting events
through this weekend, the drier surface conditions will become,
and will be something to monitor for fire weather concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR today, brief MVFR possible with VCSH or -SHRA is
possible. W-NW winds 5-15kt. Tonight, VFR with VCSH. W winds
5-10kt.

SHORT TERM:
Tues: VFR across all terminals, though brief MVFR/IFR possible
over northern terminals in -SHRA. W to NW winds 10 to 15 kts
gusting 20 to 25 kts.

Tues night - Thurs: VFR across all terminals with cigs trending
towards SKC. NW winds 5 to 10 kts shifting NE to E on Thurs at
around 5 kts.

Fri: A chance for cigs to drop towards MVFR/IFR, should rain
showers move in across the forecast area. If rain remains to the
west, conditions could remain VFR through the day. Winds S 5 to
15 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Small Craft Advisory remains on the waters through
8pm this evening. Southerly swells continues to run higher than
model guidance expecting 5-7ft seas today on the Coastal Waters
out 25nm. Intra-Coastal waters the winds/waves remain below SCA
conditions. Wave period is generally 9-10sec through tonight.
Isolated to scattered showers will briefly reduce vsby at times.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are expected to sit below small craft
advisory level through the week. Seas may be near 5 ft on the
coastal waters early Tuesday, but will continue to trend down
through the middle of the week. Wind gusts are expected to
remain below 20 kts as high pressure leads to calmer conditions.
A low pressure system will approach from the west late in the
week, but it is possible this system may dissipate prior to
crossing the waters.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$


Near Term...Sinko
Short Term...AStrauser
Long Term...AStrauser
Aviation...Sinko/AStrauser
Marine...Sinko/AStrauser