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000
FXUS64 KCRP 192014
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
314 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Key Messages:

▶ Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms across northern counties
  tomorrow

▶ Moderate Risk of Rip Currents continues into the weekend


Not much happening today weather-wise as persistence has a strong
influence thanks due to a zonal mid-level flow and a northerly
jet stream. With that said, rain chances are low (<25%) for
rain/storms tonight out west where CAM guidance is once again
trying to spin up an MCS overnight just west of our CWA over MX
then moving east into Webb county where the environment is
currently conducive for strong thunderstorms with CAPE around
2,000 J/kg and 0-6 km Bulk shear around 40 knots. The question
remains if we can overcome the CAP. Confidence is low that a MCS
will hold together as the system moves from west to east near our
northwestern CWA border. The supportive environment quickly erodes
during the late evening hours as shown by Model Sounding CAPE
values dropping below 500 J/kg.

Tomorrow should start out fairly quiet ahead of the front that`s
progged to move through during the evening/overnight hours.
Shower/storm activity will ramp up as the front approaches the
region through the day Saturday. Expecting a moderate chance (50-
70%) for storms/showers to develop by early evening, generally north
of US HWY 59. Expecting FROPA between 00Z Sunday to around 09Z when
the front should reach the coast. The environment will be marginally
conducive for strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and
large hail of at least one-inch expected mainly across the northern
tier of our region.

Temperatures: Today will top out in the 80s to mid 90s out west.
Tomorrow will be a little cooler with highs in the 80s to low 90s.
Overnight lows tonight will bottom out in the mid 60s to low 70s
with lows in the mid 50s-60s tomorrow night.

Hazards: Strong to severe thunderstorms may result in damaging winds
and large hail of at least 1.0 inch.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Key Messages:

- Sunday and Monday are shaping up to be pleasant with cooler and
  drier conditions.

- Warming trend through next week.

After a few lingering showers and thunderstorms Sunday morning,
mainly along the coast and over the coastal waters, cooler and drier
air will filter into S TX on Sunday as high pressure builds across
the region in the wake of a cold front. Temperatures Sunday are
expected to be around 15 degrees cooler with highs generally in the
low to mid 70s. Clouds will decrease throughout the day along with
breezy northerly winds. Winds decrease through Sunday night with
lows dropping into the 50s to around 60. Pleasant conditions
continue Monday with highs a couple of degrees warmer as surface
winds become onshore and begin to usher warmer moist air into the
region.

The remainder of next week will continue to warm up into the 80s and
90s with ridging across the region and strengthening low level
southerly flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Ceilings have been bouncing up and down under this cloud cover,
however expect VFR conditions to prevail for much of the
afternoon and evening. Another night with similar conditions
expected tonight with MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR VSBY`s. There`s a
low chance (<30%) for showers and thunderstorms out west tonight
but confidence is medium to low. Tomorrow ceilings expected to
hang on into the afternoon hours before VFR conditions return
towards the end of the TAF period. Looking ahead, an approaching
cold front will ramp up chances for showers and storms starting
tomorrow afternoon from low at the end of the TAF period
increasing to moderate to high (50-70%) by the evening hours.
Should have more details in the next set of TAF`s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected to continue as we head
into the weekend. Rain chances will increase tomorrow as a cold
front nears the region. By Saturday night, chances for showers
and storms will 40-70% over the waters. Then there is a medium to
high (30-60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday morning
as the cold front pushes across the gulf waters. Showers and
thunderstorms will end from west to east through Sunday afternoon
as cooler and drier air moves into the area. Strong north winds
will develop behind the cold front with Small Craft Advisories
likely Sunday through Sunday evening. A weak to moderate northeast
wind can be expected Monday, becoming east to southeast Monday
night and Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    72  86  63  76 /  10  20  50  10
Victoria          70  83  58  68 /  10  50  70  10
Laredo            72  91  63  74 /  20  40  70  20
Alice             71  88  61  73 /  10  30  50  10
Rockport          72  83  62  74 /  10  20  50  10
Cotulla           71  85  61  71 /  30  60  70   0
Kingsville        71  87  62  75 /  10  20  50  10
Navy Corpus       73  83  65  77 /  10  20  50  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BF/80
LONG TERM....TE/81
AVIATION...BF