Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
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026 FXUS65 KCYS 032351 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 551 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front will move through the region by this evening with another round of shower activity in the mountains. Snow levels will remain above 6500 feet. - Breezy to windy, and cooler weather expected for Monday through Wednesday, with isolated to scattered late day showers and thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 159 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 As the cold front continues to move east across southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska, we saw a weaker dryline develop ahead of it stretching from near Cheyenne to Alliance with southerly winds and dewpoints in the upper 40s ahead of it, and north to northwest winds and dewpoints in the 20s to low 30s behind it. A line of thunderstorms developed along it with pockets of 40 knots of shear and CAPE values near 1000 J/kg, but it was quickly undercut by the approaching cold front and died out nearly as fast as it developed. Rawlins saw some moderate to heavy snow showers this morning, and while they are very slowly moving east, they will likely not impact areas east of Interstate-25, producing very little precipitation between the Laramie Valley and the Interstate-25 corridor, including Cheyenne. The primary impacts to areas between the Laramie Valley and the Interstate-25 corridor for the rest of the day will be occasional light rain showers and snow showers possible above 6500 feet, but mainly strong gusty winds with wind gusts 35 to 45 mph possible and colder temperatures tonight. Saturday the trough moves off to the east as a ridge approaches southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska bringing high temperatures in the 50s to low 60s with clear skies. Winds will likely be light with south to southeast wind gusts 20 to 30 mph possible across the High Plains. Overall a pleasant, cool Saturday expected. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 159 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Warm day Sunday will transition to a prolonged windy and slightly cooler pattern as a storm system slow churns across Intermountain West beginning Monday and persisting into Wednesday. Looking like there is a chance for elevated winds with intermittent periods of high winds to impact the wind prone areas and much of the I-25 corridor and areas across the Nebraska Panhandle. The long term forecast will begin with a nice day on tap for Sunday as upper level ridging settles across the area allowing for 700mb temperatures to climb into the 7-11C which will translate to afternoon high temperatures climbing into the upper 60s to mid 70s for locations east of the Laramie Range and into the Nebraska Panhandle. Ahead of the next storm system increasing clouds and low level moisture will lead to the development of some high elevation snow showers across Carbon county and the Sierra Madres. Not expecting much in the way of impactful accumulation with these snow showers. A combination of a slow moving and strengthening storm system moving to our south and some lee troughing will be the catalysts from a prolonged period of windy conditions across much of SE Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Not much change regarding the NBM probabilities as they continue to show a period from Monday through Wednesday night where a large swath of SE Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle of seeing a (>80%) chance of seeing wind gusts greater than 40 mph Monday through Wednesday with lower intermittent probabilities of periodically seeing wind gusts up to high wind criteria (>58 mph). The wind prones should see more consistent wind gusts above high wind criteria so if we can stay underneath the jet energy aloft and keep those gradients tight then I`d expect we may begin to issue high wind highlights in the coming forecast updates. The extent of the winds and magnitude as stated above will be the track of the low pressure system to our south as a more southerly shift would pull the bulk of the high winds aloft further south into Colorado and this cut down on both the magnitude and duration of the wind threat. This track to the south would also pull the wrap around moisture out of northern Wyoming and southern South Dakota and shift it more into our area increasing the precipitation chances heading into next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 534 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR expected for most of our terminals through the forecast period. KAIA will see VCTS through approximately 2-3z this evening, causing MVFR fluctuations. KCDR will have MVFR through approximately 6Z this evening before transitioning to VFR. Wind gusts of 20-30 knots will be present this evening for KCYS and KLAR, but will decrease to 12 knots or less overnight. The NE Panhandle terminals will see elevated wind gusts this evening before transitioning to VRB overnight. Saturday will bring wind gusts up to 20-25 knots for most terminals during the afternoon. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LEG LONG TERM...AW AVIATION...BW