296
FXUS63 KDDC 301931
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
231 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 20-30% chance for an isolated thunderstorm or two
  in south central Kansas this evening.

- There is a 50-70% chance for strong to severe thunderstorms
  across south central Kansas and a small portion of southwest
  Kansas late Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft transitioning east through
the Upper Midwest. Near the surface, a weak cold front is pushing
southeast through south central Kansas.

Tranquil conditions are forecast during much of the period as the
SREF indicates an upper level shortwave trough lifting northeast out
of the Western High Plains into the Upper Midwest this evening. An
attendant weak cold front already moving southeast into northwest
Kansas is projected to move through southwest and south central
Kansas before stalling out this evening in the extreme northern
Texas Panhandle and northwest Oklahoma. Ample moisture
return/instability ahead of the approaching front combined with
steepening mid-level lapse rates will set the stage for potential
thunderstorm development. However, considering the timing of the
front in conjunction with peak diurnal heating, there is only an
outside chance (20-30%) for an isolated thunderstorm or two in the
extreme southeast portion of the area in south central Kansas early
this evening. At this time, the HREF shows no indication of any
QPF probability, hinting at low confidence for any activity.

Near to a little above normal temperatures are expected tonight
despite the aforementioned weak cold front pushing through southwest
Kansas into the Texas Panhandle and northwest Oklahoma before
stalling. Due to the proximity of the boundary, a developing
easterly upslope flow overnight combined with high relative
humidity will be conducive to low level stratus development
across central/south central Kansas into portions of southwest
Kansas, in turn, hindering dropping temperatures. The HREF shows
a 40-50% probability of temperatures dropping below 60F in south
central Kansas with 70-90% probability of temperatures falling
below 55F in west central Kansas and extreme southwest Kansas.
High temperatures tomorrow will be dependent on far tonight`s
stalled boundary lifts back north as a warm front. The latest
HREF paints only a 40-50% probability of highs exceeding 70F in
vicinity of the I-70 corridor to a 70-90% probability of highs
exceeding 80F in extreme southwest Kansas.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Thunderstorm chances (50-70%) remain the forecast for central
Kansas and portions of southwest Kansas very early in the period
as medium range ensembles (EPS) show an upper level shortwave
trough swinging through the Northern Rockies Wednesday evening,
ushering an attendant cold front well through western Kansas by
early Thursday morning. Ahead of the approaching system, a
surface low is projected to develop in northeast New Mexico by
mid-day tomorrow, then move northeast into southeast Colorado,
helping lift an initially stalled boundary northward through
much of southwest/south central Kansas as a warm front by early
Wednesday evening. South-southeasterlies developing behind the
front will help draw moisture into central and portions of
southwest Kansas with surface dewpoints well up into the 50s(F)
to possibly the lower 60s(F) in south central Kansas, increasing
instability with MUCAPE values upward of 2000-3000 J/kg. Factors
to consider that may hinder convection will be the timing of
the scattering out of an expected morning stratus deck along and
north of the aforementioned stalled boundary, not to mention
the bulk of a strong +100kt upper level subtropical jet remaining
well to the northwest of southwest Kansas. Still, potential
thunderstorm development exists as H5 vort maxima begin to eject
out of the approaching trough axis, interacting with steepening
mid-level lapse rates in an area ahead of a sharpening dryline
extending southward into the Texas Panhandle and the warm front
projected to bisect east-northeastward into central Kansas. The
best chance for thunderstorms has shifted slightly southward
toward the Oklahoma border in south central Kansas as suggested
by CAMs and where the NBM 4.1 indicates a 30-40% probability of
12-hr QPF exceeding one-quarter of an inch by early Thursday
morning. Any lingering precip chances early Thursday will give
way to drier conditions Friday as a dry air mass associated
with surface high pressure spreads into western Kansas.

Thunderstorm chances (30-50%) pick back up Friday night as ensembles
indicate a weak upper level shortwave trough swinging through the
Northern Plains, sending an attendant cold front into western Kansas
in wake of a departing surface high. Timing of the upper level
system/front and how much moisture return we get on the back side of
the high will play large factors into potential thunderstorm
development. The latest NBM 4.1 paints the best chance for
appreciable rainfall across portions of west central Kansas into
possibly central Kansas with a 30-40% probability of 12-hr QPF
exceeding one-quarter inch.

Fairly seasonal temperatures are forecast Thursday as much cooler
air associated with a surface high spreads into western Kansas,
lowering H85 temperatures well below 15C in central Kansas to a
little above 15C in extreme southwest Kansas. The NBM 4.1 shows A 60-
70% probability of temperatures exceeding 70F in west central Kansas
to a 70 to 80% probability of highs exceeding 75F in south central
Kansas. Similar temperatures are expected into the early part of the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1109 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

VFR condtions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through
early Wednesday morning. Northerly winds around 20 to 30kt with
gusts up to 35kt are forecast to develop immediately behind a
cold front pushing southeast through western Kansas this afternoon.
Winds are then expected to subside while turning more easterly
generally after 02-04Z this evening after the cold pushes through
and stalls out in the northern Texas Panhandle and northwest
Oklahoma.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson